[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 031252
SWODY1
SPC AC 031250

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST WED NOV 03 2004

VALID 031300Z - 041200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE 7R4 35 SSW HEZ
40 ENE MLU 60 NE PBF 10 NNW UNO 25 SW UIN 35 NW PIA 40 E RFD AZO 10
SW DTW CLE 35 SSE CAK 30 SSW PKB 35 W BKW 20 SE TRI 35 N SPA 40 NNE
CAE 30 ESE CAE 50 SE AGS 40 ESE MCN 35 N ABY 30 ENE MAI 10 SW AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW UKI 45 ENE UKI
30 SW SVE 55 NE SVE 25 W WMC 30 SW BAM 25 ESE U31 40 NE TPH 50 S TPH
35 WSW NID 25 W LAX.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...DEEP SOUTH...
UPPER LOW OVER N TX HAS BEGUN TO EJECT ENEWD IN THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE MID-MS VLY BY TONIGHT.  1011 MB SURFACE LOW
VCNTY NEW ORLEANS WILL MOVE NWD INTO NRN MS BY MID-AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE LWR OH VLY BY TONIGHT.

BROAD WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER
LOW WITH AN ASSOCIATED BAND OF TSTMS ONGOING FROM WCNTRL AL-SERN LA.
 THESE TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AL AND SERN
MS THROUGH THE MORNING.  12Z SLIDELL SOUNDING...APPARENTLY RELEASED
BEFORE TSTMS MOVED THROUGH...EXHIBITED MLCAPE OF 2325 J/KG.  THIS
AIR MASS WILL LIKELY ADVECT NWD INTO CNTRL/SRN AL AND THE REMAINDER
OF SERN MS THIS MORNING...MAINTAINING TSTMS.  VWP FROM MOBILE AND
SLIDELL SUGGEST THAT BOTH THE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE
MARGINAL TO SUPPORT A SUSTAINED SEVERE TSTM THREAT.  HOWEVER...
TSTMS MAY POSE AN ISOLD RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND
GUST THROUGH THE MORNING.  IF POCKETS OF HEATING CAN BE REALIZED
THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD BE A HEIGHTENED RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...PARTICULARLY OVER CNTRL/SRN AL.

MEANWHILE...SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL
TRAVEL ACROSS TN AND NRN/CNTRL MS THIS AFTERNOON.  IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BEGIN TO RECOVER THIS AFTERNOON IN WAKE
OF CURRENT TSTMS AS MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT MOVES OVERHEAD.  GIVEN
HEATING...BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST AND TSTMS COULD DEVELOP
BY MID-AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL MS-WRN TN AS 09Z RUC SUGGESTS.  STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY REVOLVING AROUND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE
CATEGORICAL SLGT RISKS.

..RACY/GUYER.. 11/03/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.