[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021247
SWODY1
SPC AC 021246

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004

VALID 021300Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA
50 N PDX 15 N ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW PSX 55 W HOU
45 NNW HOU 45 ENE LFK 40 S ELD 20 WNW GLH 15 E MEM 45 WSW HOP 45 ESE
IND 15 NNW MFD 20 NE YNG 25 ENE PIT MGW 10 ESE JKL 40 SSE LOZ 50 NNE
ATL 15 SSE LGC 25 S CEW.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS VLY...
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SPIN EWD ACROSS W TX EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL ONLY BE IN NCNTRL TX BY TONIGHT.  WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
HAD TAKEN PLACE BETWEEN KCRP AND BUOY 42019 PER 12Z ANALYSIS.  THIS
LOW SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AS IT MOVES ALONG AN INVERTED TROUGH INTO SRN
LA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD RAIN/EMBEDDED TSTMS WILL FOCUS ALONG
THIS INVERTED TROUGH WITH SLOW MOVEMENT EWD THROUGH TONIGHT.

WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST OF THE CURRENT RAIN AREA REMAINS BUOYANT AS
EVIDENCED BY THE 12Z SLIDELL MLCAPE OF 1679 J/KG.  BUT...DRY AIR
SITUATED ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN ENCOURAGING COLD
POOLS TO BE GENERATED BY UPSTREAM CONVECTION.  THESE OUTFLOWS WILL
TEND TO UNDERCUT SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN LA/CNTRL
MS THROUGH THE DAY.  ALSO...GIVEN BACKING MEAN FLOW...TSTMS WILL
LIKELY BE CARRIED TO THE COLD SIDE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  GIVEN
POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...RISKS FOR HAIL ARE SLIM.  THUS...ABOUT
THE ONLY PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO BE WITH THE STORMS
THAT INITIATE AHEAD OF OUTFLOWS WHERE AN ISOLD TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND
GUST MAY OCCUR.  THIS IS WELL HANDLED IN PREVIOUS DAY 1 AND LOW
PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

..RACY/GUYER.. 11/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.