[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 021621
SWODY1
SPC AC 021620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST TUE NOV 02 2004

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
7R4 45 SSW HEZ JAN 40 N MEI 0A8 65 NE MOB 25 E GPT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E PSX 25 NNE HOU
40 NE LFK 30 SW ELD 30 S PBF 15 E MEM 45 WSW HOP 45 ESE IND 15 NNW
MFD 20 NE YNG 25 ENE PIT MGW 5I3 30 W HSS 40 NW AND 25 SW AHN 30 WNW
MCN 40 WNW ABY 20 WNW AQQ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE BLI 40 NE SEA
35 E PDX 40 NNW MFR 30 NE ACV 40 SSW EKA.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND WESTERN AL...

CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TX WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH MAIN FRONTAL BAND EXTENDING FROM THE OH/TN VALLEYS
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT ALONG AND EAST OF FRONT OVER LA/MS/AL WITH
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS
GENERALLY REMAINED NORTH OF FRONT TODAY.  HOWEVER...CONTINUED
HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER LA/MS AND LITTLE CAP MAY ALLOW
ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM IN WARM SECTOR.  LOCAL VAD PROFILES AND RUC
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED OR EVEN SUPERCELL STORMS
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES.  PLEASE REFER TO
MCD NUMBER 2397 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

..HART/JEWELL.. 11/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.