[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020547
SWODY1
SPC AC 020545

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1145 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE BLI 25 NNE SEA
50 N PDX 15 N ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW BRO 10 WNW NIR
20 WNW CLL 45 S TYR 35 SSW ELD 25 SE PBF 30 NW MEM 25 W PAH 10 SE
MIE 20 N MFD 20 NNE YNG 25 ENE PIT MGW 15 S JKL 20 ESE CSV 35 NNE
GAD SEM 35 SE MOB.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS
THIS PERIOD AS NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER
MS VALLEY MOVES RAPIDLY EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE SECOND FEATURE
MOVES ACROSS THE PAC NW / NRN CA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD.  FURTHER S HOWEVER...MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE UPPER LOW NOW
MOVING ACROSS W TX.  THE LOW IS FORECAST TO ROTATE SLOWLY ENEWD INTO
WRN N TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ONLY EXTENDING AS FAR E AS E TX BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE VICINITY
OF LK ERIE SWWD TO THE TX GULF COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. 
NRN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EWD AHEAD OF NRN
STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...AND SHOULD MOVE OFF THE NE U.S. COAST BY
LATE IN THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE UPPER TX COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THIS
LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD WITH TIME...REACHING THE LOWER
MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

...TX GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MS / TN VALLEYS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
REGION ATTM...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE START OF THE
DAY 1 PERIOD AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS FAR W TX /
SERN OK.  WITH UPPER RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SERN CONUS
AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING W OF THE
REGION...WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE -- ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD / SLOW
MOVING AREA OF CONVECTION -- SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
MARGINAL ACROSS THIS REGION.

ALONG WITH THE ANTICIPATED WEAK INSTABILITY...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SHOULD REMAIN W OF THIS REGION -- ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN TX THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  THEREFORE...WILL
MAINTAIN ONLY LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT ATTM.

..GOSS.. 11/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.