[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 020059
SWODY1
SPC AC 020058

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N
BRO 10 SW ALI 45 SSE SAT 15 S CLL 10 E LFK 20 ESE POE 15 ESE MLU 35
SSE PBF 10 S MEM 20 SSW DYR 35 SW MKL 10 NNE GWO 25 SSE HEZ 15 SSE
7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ELP 20 NNE ALM
25 ENE ROW 20 NW LBB 40 ESE AMA 25 WSW LBL 45 NNE DDC 30 SE MHK 15 W
JLN 20 SSE FYV 60 WSW ARG 15 S BLV 15 WSW DEC 45 S CGX ARB 40 NNW
MFD 35 N LEX 25 S OWB 20 SE UOX JAN 40 SW HUM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM COASTAL TX NEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...

...LOWER MS VALLEY SSWWD INTO THE TX GULF COAST REGION...
VERY MOIST BUT MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AROUND 500 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ EXTENDS NWD ALONG THE MS RIVER TOWARD MEM...WHERE
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY EWD.  THOUGH THREAT
FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS THIS REGION...MOST PERSISTENT THREAT
WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION FROM S CENTRAL LA
SWWD INTO S TX.  ACROSS THIS REGION...EVENING RAOBS INDICATED A MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS /AROUND 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/.  WITH
APPROACHING UPPER LOW FORECAST TO MAINTAIN MOIST SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE UVV...FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPERCELLS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...ACCOMPANIED BY THE THREAT FOR HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

...PARTS OF OK SSWWD ACROSS N TX INTO THE HILL COUNTRY...
DAYTIME HEATING HAS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS TO
RESULT IN AN AXIS OF AROUND 500 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT...WHICH NOW EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OK SSWWD TO NEAR DRT.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ALONG / AHEAD OF FRONT AS
BOUNDARY SHIFTS EWD INTO MORE MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  WITH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
OBSERVED ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT LOW-END SEVERE THREAT -- MAINLY
IN THE FORM OF HAIL -- TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THIS REGION.  THOUGH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER TO STABILIZE...CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF UPPER LOW MAY ALLOW A
HAIL THREAT WITH INCREASINGLY-ELEVATED STORMS TO LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

..GOSS.. 11/02/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.