[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 012002
SWODY1
SPC AC 012000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
CRP 10 SSW CLL 15 ESE TXK 20 E LIT POF 20 SSE BLV SLO 25 SW EVV DYR
45 NNW GWO 15 N HEZ 25 SW LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 35 W HDO
55 ENE JCT 15 S BWD SJT P07 55 SSW MRF ...CONT... 35 W ELP 10 SSW
TCC GAG SLN TOP SZL COU 45 NNE PIA CGX SBN FWA MIE OWB UOX JAN 40 SW
HUM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS....

STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK CONTINUES TO DIG INTO BASE OF HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDS ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU.  AS THIS
PROCESS CONTINUES...MODELS SUGGEST EVOLVING CLOSED LOW...NOW OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WILL REDEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

GRADUAL INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER MID-LEVEL COOLING STILL
LAGGING TO THE WEST...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PRE-FRONTAL
WIND SHIFT ALREADY DRYING LOWER-LEVELS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL STATES WILL REMAIN LIMITED.

...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
COMPOSITE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM VICINITY OF WARM
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...THROUGH EASTERN ARKANSAS...INTO
TEXAS GULF COASTAL AREAS.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS BEEN FOCUS FOR PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SO FAR TODAY...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
ONGOING LINE TO STRENGTHEN IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING NEXT FEW HOURS.
 

DUE TO WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MIXED LAYER CAPE ALONG AXIS OF
70F SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS GENERALLY ON
THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG OR SO.  HOWEVER...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH 40 TO 45 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WITHIN
CONVECTIVE LINE.  INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS LINE OF CONVECTION MAY ALSO
AID DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF HIGHER MOMENTUM...CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  ONLY SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF SQUALL
LINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS STRONG OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
WEAK SURFACE HEATING NEAR DRY LINE EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO THE DEL RIO AREA MAY SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING.  MIXED
LAYER CAPE MAY NOT EXCEED 500 J/KG...BUT SHEAR PROVIDED BY
MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION IN STRONGEST CELLS...CONTRIBUTING TO RISK FOR
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS.

AS STRONGER MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH INCREASES LATER TONIGHT...SEVERE THREAT MAY INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. AHEAD OF COLD FRONT SURGING
SOUTHEAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OFF THE
TEXAS COAST MAY ALLOW INLAND RETURN OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
INCREASING DESTABILIZATION.

...SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS...
DEW POINTS ARE STILL AROUND 60F AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND
SURFACE HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION.  FRONT MAY
PROVIDE FOCUS/FORCING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.  MID-LEVEL COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER TROUGH MAY ENHANCE RISK FOR HAIL IN ISOLATED STRONGER
CELLS...BUT CORE OF COLDEST AIR WILL ADVECT FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

..KERR.. 11/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.