[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011636
SWODY1
SPC AC 011634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1034 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GLS 40
W POE 20 WSW ELD LIT 35 ENE UNO 45 SSW STL SLO 30 NW EVV DYR 45 NNW
GWO HEZ 20 SW 7R4.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE
DAL MWL 45 WSW SPS LTS OKC 55 E OKC MLC PRX 35 ESE DAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW DMN 20 S TCS 50
ENE CVS 50 W GAG 40 WNW HUT 40 N CNK 35 ESE LNK 45 NNE PIA 40 NNW
FWA 10 ENE FDY 30 NNW CMH 50 E LUK 25 SSW LEX 55 SSW CKV 50 SE GWO
25 S HUM ...CONT... 30 WNW LRD 10 S SAT 60 W TPL 25 WSW SEP 35 ENE
ABI 60 SSE MAF 40 WSW MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NORTH TX/SOUTHERN
OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER AND MID MS
VALLEY...

...LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN STATES HAS CLOSED OFF OVER
NM/WEST TX...WHILE 50-70 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS ON EAST
SIDE OF TROUGH COVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. 
CONVECTIVELY AIDED FRONTAL BAND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE LA/TX BORDER
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL AR AND SOUTHEAST MO.  A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S AND POCKETS OF DAYTIME HEATING EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  AREAS
OF MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL LA INTO NORTHEAST
AR.  LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO QUITE
STRONG ALONG THIS AXIS.  LOCAL VAD PROFILES AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW
3KM SRH VALUES OF 200-400 M2/S2.  THIS WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...POSING A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS. SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF UPPER SYSTEM SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT FARTHER EAST INTO MS/TN.

...SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW NEAR CDS/LTS...WITH A COLD
FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE.  DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN OK/NORTH TX...WHERE
AFTERNOON HEATING AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
DESTABILIZE AIR MASS.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET
WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING.

..HART/BANACOS.. 11/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.