[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 011316
SWODY1
SPC AC 011314

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
LRD 25 SW AUS 35 NNE ACT 10 NNE FTW MWL 40 W MWL 55 NNE ABI 65 SSE
CDS 15 ESE CDS 20 E CSM 30 SSE END 50 W TUL 10 NNE MLC 15 ENE PRX 20
WSW UNO 10 W POF 15 NW DYR 25 SE GLH 40 WSW HUM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BUF 45 WNW EKN
55 SW BNA 50 SE GWO 15 SSE HUM ...CONT... 30 S DMN 35 WNW TCS 20 ENE
ABQ 40 WNW PVW 55 E AMA 30 NW HUT 35 W BIE 25 NNW OMA 20 NNE DSM 15
WSW MLI 10 NE BEH 45 NNE MTC.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

...LOWER MS VALLEY...

PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WILL PERSIST FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION WILL EXIST
OVER PARTS OF LA WHERE SOME HEATING MAY OCCUR AND HIGHER BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS EXIST. HOWEVER...OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE LIMITED BY POOR LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WITH MLCAPES FROM 1500 J/KG FROM PARTS OF LA TO
BELOW 1000 J/KG OVER MUCH OF AR. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES
CURRENTLY EXIST OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN WEAKENING LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WITH TIME. NEVERTHELESS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENT INTO THE AFTERNOON TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.


...CNTRL/SRN OK THROUGH NW TX...

ONLY MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN WAKE OF WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA. HOWEVER...STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES ASSOCIATED
WITH APPROACHING STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
DESTABILIZATION AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 1000
J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF SRN OK THROUGH NW TX.
INCREASING FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
DIVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGH AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
ALONG SWD MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO
INITIATE STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL THROUGH EARLY EVENING.


...S THROUGH N CNTRL TX...

PROCESSED AIR IN WAKE OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND AND LINGERING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION OVER MUCH
OF CNTRL/NRN CNTRL TX. THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVER MUCH OF THIS AREA...LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION MAY
BE A DETRIMENT TO OVERALL SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. BEST THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE OVER PARTS OF S TX LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
INTERACTS WITH RICHER MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE COAST.

..DIAL.. 11/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.