[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010559
SWODY1
SPC AC 010557

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1157 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE
DRT JCT 25 NW BWD 40 NW ABI 50 ENE HOB 25 WNW LBB 50 SSW GAG 20 ESE
END 30 NNE MLC 15 SW PGO 45 E PGO 25 E UNO 30 ENE POF DYR 35 WSW UOX
35 SSE LCH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W ELP 60 SW GNT 40
NNW 4SL 40 E DDC 25 NE FNB 10 WNW MLI 20 SW BEH MTC ...CONT... 30 SW
BUF 25 S HLG 40 SE BNA 25 ESE JAN 15 SSE HUM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF TX /
OK INTO THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH TIME...MAINTAINING A
BELT OF STRONG SSWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS / OZARKS
/ MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE OH VALLEY.  CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACROSS SRN NM / W TX EARLY IN
THE PERIOD..WHICH SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS W TX THROUGH 02/12Z.


AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID MS / OH
VALLEY DURING THE DAY...AS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MOVES NEWD ACROSS
MO.  COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD FROM THIS LOW MAY BE HINDERED IN ITS
SWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SECONDARY LOW PERSISTS ACROSS
WRN N TX AHEAD OF CLOSED UPPER LOW.  HOWEVER...THIS LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING / OVERNIGHT...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW FRONT TO SURGE SEWD ACROSS TX THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

...ERN HALF OF TX INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER AND MID MS VALLEY...
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ATTM FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
NNEWD INTO MO WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE START
OF THE DAY 1 FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH.  DESPITE
FAVORABLE WIND FIELD...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND WEAK LAPSE RATES
SHOULD LIMIT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.

MODELS SUGGEST THAT DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...LIMITED HEATING AND
MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS MAY RESULT IN MINIMAL DESTABILIZATION JUST
AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE BAND -- ACROSS ERN TX INTO PARTS OF AR / LA. 
ASSUMING SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...AN INCREASE IN SEVERE
THREAT MAY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT...STRONG LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR ANTICIPATED ACROSS AR IN PARTICULAR WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL. 

HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION REMAINS IN
QUESTION...RELATIVELY LOW / CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY APPEARS TO EXIST
ATTM.

...PARTS OF OK INTO N TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...
MID-LEVEL COOLING AND THUS STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND THE WRN HALF OF TX THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.  THIS MAY ALLOW AIRMASS TO
DESTABILIZE -- PARTICULARLY IF SOME CLEARING / SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR
BEHIND EWD-MOVING CONVECTIVE BAND.

WITH FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS OK / N TX DURING THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS MAY INITIATE ACROSS WRN OK / THE TX PANHANDLE AND
THEN SPREAD SEWD ACROSS OK INTO N TX AND THE TX SOUTH PLAINS WITH
TIME.  WITH STRONG SSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION...SHEAR
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH MAIN THREAT LIKELY TO BE
LARGE HAIL GIVEN THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STORM NEAR OR JUST N
OF THE COLD FRONT.  

STORMS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AS
AIRMASS STABILIZES.

..GOSS.. 11/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.