[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010101
SWODY1
SPC AC 010100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 PM CST SUN OCT 31 2004

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE
SPS 25 SSW MLC 25 WNW PGO 40 SSE PGO 40 N GGG 45 NNE CLL 35 NE SAT
50 ESE JCT 25 NW BWD 30 SE SPS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SE ELP 20 NNE GDP
25 WNW ROW 50 ENE DMN 20 WSW SVC 30 E PHX 35 SE FLG 50 WSW FMN 35 SE
CNY 25 ENE MTJ 40 WSW PUB 45 WSW RTN 15 E ABQ 40 NE 4CR 30 NNE CVS
25 WNW LBB 50 SSE LBB 45 NW ABI 25 SW CSM 15 ENE PNC 35 ESE SZL 15
WNW ALN 40 SW HUF 35 SSW SDF 55 NNW CSV 45 WNW CHA 25 S CBM 15 S JAN
45 SE MCB 20 SE GPT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND N
TX INTO SERN OK...

...PORTIONS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY NEWD INTO SERN OK...
SRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF LARGER-SCALE
FEATURE -- AND ACCOMPANYING 70 KT SSWLY MID-LEVEL JET STREAK -- WILL
SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER TX /
OK.

DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION...SOME
DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NRN TX -- HAS RESULTED IN 500 TO 1500 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN A LARGE BAND FROM THE TRANSPECOS REGION
/ HILL COUNTRY OF TEXAS NEWD ACROSS SERN OK.  AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF THIS BAND...WHERE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS -- INCLUDING A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS --
CONTINUE. 

WITH FAVORABLY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...IT APPEARS
THAT THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING.  ADDITIONALLY...WITH SELY SURFACE WIND VEERING RAPIDLY
TO SWLY AT 1 KM...SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR AN ISOLATED / BRIEF
TORNADO ALSO APPEARS TO EXIST. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM /
MESOSCALE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO SWOMCD 2384.

THOUGH THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO SLOWLY BECOME LESS UNSTABLE
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT LATER THIS
EVENING.

MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND N
TX AND FAR SERN OK THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...THOUGH A
LOWER-PROBABILITY THREAT EXTENDS SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
EWD ACROSS THE ARKALTEX REGION.

..GOSS.. 11/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.