[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311646
SWODY1
SPC AC 311643

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW
JHW 20 SE DUJ 15 SSW CXY 15 NW DOV 35 ESE DOV ...CONT... 20 NE SSI
30 ESE VLD 20 N AQQ 35 NNE BVE 20 SE 7R4 10 N GLS 40 SSE AUS 55 NNW
SAT 60 S BWD 15 WSW SEP DAL 10 S TXK 25 NW HEZ 15 N LUL 30 WSW AUO
45 NE MCN 45 ESE AND 45 NE HKY 15 NE PSK 25 ENE CRW 20 ESE CMH 40
NNW DAY 45 NW DNV 30 SSW RFD 30 WSW LNR 25 E MKT 55 ESE BRD 15 ESE
DLH 20 ENE RHI 20 SW PLN 40 SE OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W COT 40 N JCT 10
W MWL 45 S ADM 25 SSE PGO 25 NNE PBF 10 WSW TUP 25 NW HSV 40 NW CSV
35 E LEX 35 SE LUK 40 NNE SDF 45 NNW EVV 15 SE STL 30 WSW JEF 45 S
OJC 30 SSW MHK 30 NNW MCK 25 SSW MHN VTN 25 ENE 9V9 15 SW RWF 30 NE
RWF 25 SW BRD 50 WNW AXN 25 ESE JMS 20 S DVL 75 NNE DVL ...CONT...
35 ENE MSS PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST/THE
SERN AND MID ATL STATES AND THE UPR GRT LKS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LOW WHICH EVOLVED DURING THE LAST 24 HRS OVER THE UPPER
MS VLY SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NRN MN WHILE STRONG
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SWEEPS ENE ACROSS THE LWR GRT LKS. BAND OF 70 KT
WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER FEATURE WILL
OVERSPREAD THE TN VLY TODAY...WHILE SPEEDS ON THE ORDER OF 50 KTS
MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SE AND MID ATLANTIC STATES.

AT LOWER LEVELS...OCCLUDED FRONT/TROUGH SHOULD LIFT N TO THE UPPER
GRT LKS TODAY...SHIFTING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO WSWLY ACROSS MUCH OF MI. 
ELSEWHERE...A WEAK WAVE APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ATTM ALONG
WARM/STATIONARY FRONT IN SRN VA...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO FORCING FROM
TN VLY SPEED MAX.  FARTHER S AND W...COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
THE GULF CST AND SERN STATES /LEFT OVER FROM OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE/
WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIME CONVECTIVE FOCUS IN THOSE AREAS.

...CNTRL GULF CST NEWD TO CSTL CAROLINAS...
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SRN
LA ENE INTO S GA LATER TODAY /REF WW 353/ AS HEATING FURTHER
DESTABILIZES REGION OF VERY RICH MOISTURE INFLOW AND MODERATE WSWLY
DEEP SHEAR.  ORIENTATION OF SHEAR PARALLEL TO BOUNDARY AND FAIRLY
LONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS/ISOLATED TORNADOES AND HAIL.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED COLD CONVECTIVE
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL MAY ALSO FAVOR TRAINING AND/OR BACK-BUILDING
STORMS ACROSS SRN LA/MS.

FARTHER NE...STORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NOW OVER THE GA/SC/NC PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN. 
ORIENTATION OF SHEAR RELATIVE TO BOUNDARY...SOMEWHAT STRONGER DEEP
FLOW AND RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD FAVOR
FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS...POSSIBLY WITH DAMAGING WIND /REF
WW 354/ THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...MID ATL STATES...
A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES WILL EXIST INVOF
DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE/STATIONARY FRONT IN THE DELMARVA REGION. 
DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT SQUALL LINE AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW WILL LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION AND KEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS SOMEWHAT
DISORGANIZED...THUS STORM COVERAGE IS IN QUESTION ATTM.  BUT BAND OF
50+ KT WLY FLOW OVERSPREADING REGION AHEAD OF TN VLY SPEED MAX WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ROTATING CONVECTION ...AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ENHANCED NEAR FRONT.

...UPR GRT LKS...
A SMALL AREA OF SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT INVOF OCCLUSION LIFTING N ACROSS ERN MN/WI
AND MI.  NRN IL VORT MAX WILL PROVIDE SUBSTANTIAL LARGE SCALE ASCENT
ACROSS REGION...BUT SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED IN AREAS WHERE SUNSHINE CAN RESULT IN BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION.  OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST POSSIBILITY OF
DIURNAL...LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND...IN NRN/ERN LWR
MI...POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES.

..CORFIDI.. 05/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.