[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 311303
SWODY1
SPC AC 311300

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

VALID 311300Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE
CHS 55 NNE AYS 20 E ABY 20 WSW GPT 10 WSW LFT 60 SE AUS 40 S AUS 55
NNW SAT 60 S BWD 15 WSW SEP DAL 30 SW TXK 25 E GWO 15 NE GAD 20 SE
AVL 50 WNW GSO 15 NE PSK 15 NE BKW 30 NE HTS 25 WSW DAY 50 ESE MMO
30 E ALO 15 E MKT 35 E STC 55 SSE DLH 20 ENE RHI 20 E MBL 10 N MTC
...CONT... 60 NNE CLE 10 WSW DUJ 15 SSW CXY 15 S DOV 20 ENE WAL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MSS 20 WNW EEN 20 WSW
HYA ...CONT... 40 NW LRD 40 E SJT 25 ENE ABI 25 WSW DUA 40 S PGO 10
NNW PBF 45 WNW MSL 60 ENE MKL 35 SSE PAH 25 W VIH 10 W MKC 25 SW LNK
50 NNE BUB 30 WNW PIR 20 N DIK 55 N ISN.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
STATES...ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...OH VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST....

...MID ATLANTIC STATES...

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NRN VA WITH A SFC
TROUGH LOCATED NORTH TO SOUTH IN CNTRL VA AND CNTRL NC. A STRONG
CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING QUICKLY EWD AND SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO ERN
VA AND ECNTRL NC THIS MORNING. THE LINE HAS HAD A LONG HISTORY OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND THIS POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST AS THE LINE
MOVES INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN AND ENCOUNTERS LOWER 70 F SFC
DEWPOINTS. AS TEMPS WARM AHEAD OF THE LINE THIS MORNING...INCREASING
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY HELP THE LINE TO REINTENSIFY. THE 12Z
SOUNDING AT GREENSBORO NC IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1800 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 KT. AS THE
INSTABILITY GOES UP THIS MORNING...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE AS A SPEED MAX OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS MTNS MOVES EWD
ACROSS VA AND NC. THESE FACTORS WILL INCREASE THE WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR FROM SOUTH OF RICHMOND VA
EXTENDING SWWD TO CHARLOTTE NC (REF MCD 1015). AS THE LINE
REORGANIZES...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT WILL DEVELOP AND
EXIST UNTIL THE LINE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON.

...GULF COASTAL STATES...

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ORIENTED NE TO SW FROM
WRN TN TO CNTRL TX. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE LINES ARE MOVING SEWD ACROSS
LA...MS AND AL WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F ARE
ADVECTING NWD FROM THE COASTAL AREAS. AS THE LINE MOVES INTO THE
VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS MORNING DUE TO SFC
HEATING...THE LINE SHOULD REINTENSIFY AND THE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE. THE LINE WILL MOVE SWD TOWARD THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE REGION WHICH IS ENHANCING THE SHEAR. BUT AS
THE JET DRIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WEAKENING IN THE LINE MAY OCCUR AS THE LINE MOVES SEWD
TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS SFC INSTABILITY DECREASES
ACROSS THE REGION.

FARTHER WEST ACROSS ERN TX AND SW LA...VERY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS DUE
TO STEEP LAPSE RATES AND HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. THE LAKE
CHARLES 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED ABOUT 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND THIS WILL
INCREASE TO ABOVE 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXTREME INSTABILITY
COUPLED WITH ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A
SUPERCELL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. ANY
SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7.5
TO 8.0 C/KM AND THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL THREAT ACROSS
THE REGION. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AND MAY MOVE SWD TOWARD THE UPPER TX COAST DUE TO THE
STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

...UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS ERN ND. IN
ADDITION...A SFC TROUGH IS ORIENTED WNW TO ESE FROM A SFC LOW ACROSS
NW MN TO SRN LOWER MI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM. IN ADDITION...SOME INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...COLD AIR
ALOFT IN THE CORE OF THE UPPER-TROUGH AND THIS WILL PROMOTE A HAIL
THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS SFC TEMPS COOL AND
INSTABILITY DECREASES.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 05/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.