[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 312005
SWODY1
SPC AC 312002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW
JHW 15 WNW DUJ 25 SE AOO 20 ENE BWI 35 ESE DOV ...CONT... 10 NNW MLB
30 WNW ORL 25 E CTY 20 NNE AQQ 35 NNE BVE 20 SE 7R4 10 N GLS 50 W
HOU 10 W AUS 55 SE BWD 15 WSW SEP DAL 30 N TYR 25 SW SHV 30 N MCB 25
SSW MGM 70 SSW AGS 15 NE CAE 15 S HKY 30 ENE SSU 35 ESE MGW 30 NW
HLG 30 W FDY 45 NW DNV 45 W MMO 35 NW DBQ 35 SE MSP 55 ESE BRD 15
ESE DLH 20 ENE RHI 25 E ESC 20 NNE PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW BRO 30 SSE ALI
40 NW VCT 30 E SAT 50 W HDO 50 ENE DRT 50 NE JCT 15 NNE BWD 10 W MWL
35 N DAL 35 SW TXK 30 SSE GLH 25 W BHM 45 ENE CHA 35 E 5I3 15 NE CRW
UNI 25 W CMH 10 SSW MIE 35 N SLO 35 ENE JEF 15 SSE OJC 30 SSW MHK 20
NNW MCK 35 E DGW BIL 85 E LWT 40 NNW MLS 40 S REJ 10 SE PHP 30 ENE
9V9 15 SW RWF 30 NE RWF 25 SW BRD 50 WNW AXN 25 ESE JMS 20 S DVL 75
NNE DVL ...CONT... 35 ENE MSS PSM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE GULF COAST
REGION...CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...AND GREAT LAKES...

...GULF COAST REGION...
COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN LA INTO
NORTH FL...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS.  AIRMASS
SOUTH OF BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S
AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG.  DEEP...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY WILL PROMOTE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION INTO BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES AS WELL AS ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT.  HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATE SOME RISK OF TORNADOES.  STORMS MAY SPREAD
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FL...WHERE VERY WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL AID THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS.

...EAST TX...
AN EXTREMELY MOIST/UNSTABLE SURFACE AIRMASS IS IN PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER EAST TX...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S AND
SBCAPE VALUES OVER 5000 J/KG.  LITTLE CINH REMAINS IN THIS
REGION...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS WILL LIKELY WEAKEN BY MID EVENING AS DIURNAL
COOLING ENSUES.

...DELMARVA REGION...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VA TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES NOW IN THE MID/UPPER
80S AND DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S.  THIS IS RESULTING IN A
POCKET OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000
J/KG.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THIS REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...MAINLY FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL VA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION. 
RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WILL POSE
A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...
SEVERAL SPOKES OF VORTICITY ARE ROTATING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY.  POCKETS OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.  COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT...STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR INDICATE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. STORMS WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET.

..HART.. 05/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.