[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310550
SWODY1
SPC AC 310547

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1247 AM CDT MON MAY 31 2004

VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE
ILM 15 S FLO 35 W DHN 20 WNW MSY 10 S 7R4.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 E PSX 10 SSE VCT
20 SE NIR 30 W NIR 40 ENE COT 40 NNE HDO 20 ESE BWD 25 SSE FTW 35 N
TYR 35 SW ELD 45 SE GWO 15 SSW CSV 10 S JKL UNI 25 NE DAY 25 W MIE
10 NNW MTO 30 W SPI 35 WSW BRL 45 NNE DSM 30 NNW FRM 35 SSE AXN 10
ENE BRD 65 S DLH 10 WSW CWA 10 W MBS 15 E ERI 10 SW BFD 20 NE AOO 35
NNW BWI 30 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LRD 25 E SJT 30
N ABI 25 SSW DUA PGO 15 S LIT 25 SE POF 55 SSW STL 40 ENE COU 15 S
TOP 25 NNE CNK 50 WSW YKN 25 NNE PIR 20 N DIK 55 N ISN ...CONT...
MSS 20 WNW EEN 15 SE BOS.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX EWD INTO THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL PART OF THE COUNTRY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE WHILE ELONGATING TO COVER MOST OF THE ERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE NATION BY MONDAY NIGHT. BAND OF STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW ALONG
SRN PART OF THE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE SRN STATES
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WARM FRONT RETREATING INTO
CNTRL PA AND DE.  TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
ACROSS ERN TX AS A DRYLINE MIXES EWD INTO CNTRL TX.

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING ONGOING VERY STRONG SQUALL LINE
MOVING EWD INTO THE OH VLY.  THIS PUTS MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON SEVERE
RISKS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY.  THERE WILL LIKELY
BE PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS AREAS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
MOUNTAINS AND THIS COULD LIMIT OVERALL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. 
AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESIDES JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION AND
ANY HEATING WILL LEAD TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.  GIVEN DIFFLUENT UPPER
FLOW REGIME...TSTMS WILL EITHER CONTINUE FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...OR COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.  FORECAST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL
CURVATURE SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE A RISK OF TORNADOES. 
OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED.  THIS AREA WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR TRENDS IN INSTABILITY AND HIGHER
PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

...SRN STATES INTO THE CAROLINAS...
POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE IN QUESTION AND
SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS ARE NOT PROVIDING MUCH CONFIDENCE.  WHILE
THE BOUNDARIES ARE APT TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS GA AND THE
CAROLINAS...TAIL END SHOULD STALL ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AL-GA-LA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD NORTH OF THE REGION
DURING THE DAY...BUT FRONT WILL BE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MODEST H5
FLOW.  CONTINUED VERY MOIST INFLOW...LOCAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ORGANIZED
SEVERE TSTMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLD
TORNADOES.

...CNTRL/ERN TX...
THE REGION WILL BE ALONG SRN EDGE OF STRONGER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS.  AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPPER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS BENEATH STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES OF 3000-3500 J/KG BY
AFTERNOON ALONG/EAST OF THE DRYLINE AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. 
STRONGEST CAP SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED SWWD MORE THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS
AND TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE DRYLINE/FRONT BY MID- AFTERNOON.
 GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR... SUPERCELLS
WILL BE LIKELY WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO.  GIVEN SLIGHT NW COMPONENT TO THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS MAY MAKE IT TO THE COAST NORTH OF
VICTORIA LATER IN THE EVENING.

...UPPER MS VLY/ERN DAKS EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED OVER CNTRL MN WHILE
EXPANDING IN A WNW-ESE FASHION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AND DAKS. 
ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY COLD H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 18C OR LESS WILL
RESIDE OVER RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 50S DURING
PEAK HEATING FROM THE DAKS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR LOW TOPPED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT MAY GIVE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  A RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO WILL
EXIST...PRIMARILY BENEATH AND JUST E OF THE LOW IN THE UPPER MS
VLY...AS WAS THE CASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

..RACY/TAYLOR.. 05/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.