[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 310051
SWODY1
SPC AC 310048

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

VALID 310100Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW
UNI 20 NNW JKL 45 WSW LOZ 25 NNW MSL 50 ESE GWO 25 ENE ELD 40 NNW
ELD 20 E MDH 55 NW LAF 20 ESE CGX 45 SE AZO 40 SSW FDY 45 WNW UNI.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
HTS 30 WSW CHA 25 NNW TCL 20 ENE JAN 40 W MLU 20 N GGG MDH 35 NE SLO
50 S CGX 20 NNE CGX 15 W JXN 25 NNE FDY 25 W ZZV 30 SW HTS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
CRE 45 NNW AHN 20 N LUL 35 SE LFK AUS 60 E JCT 25 SSW DAL 35 SSE PGO
55 NNW POF 25 SW DEC 25 E OTM 35 SE RST 30 NNE MSP 65 SSW DLH 30 E
MTW 20 ENE CLE 25 NW PIT 10 W MGW 15 NE PSK 40 ESE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BUF 15 S ACY
...CONT... 30 SW CHS 30 SSE AHN 15 WNW MCB 35 NNE VCT 10 SSW LRD
...CONT... 45 SE DRT 20 NNW DAL 30 NE HRO VIH 35 ENE MKC 35 NE MHK
20 WNW SLN 45 W HLC 45 E SNY 35 NNE CDR 15 S BKX 15 SE RWF 30 NW STC
40 ESE RRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW CTB 20 NE HLN
10 NNW 27U 55 S S80 45 SE ALW 40 NE EPH 55 NNW EAT 75 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN
TN...MO BOOTHEEL...WRN/MIDDLE TN...MUCH OF KY...IND...ERN IL AND WRN
OH...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM THE LOWER MS VLY TO THE MIDWEST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE UPPER MS
VLY AND CNTRL GREAT LAKES EWD TO THE CAROLINAS...

...THE LARGE AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS WELL
UNDERWAY AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE MIDWEST...TN VLY AND
SRN STATES OVERNIGHT...

...MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MS VLY...
COMPLEX SHORT TERM FORECAST HAS UNFOLDED OVER A LARGE AREA.  AIRMASS
HAS RECOVERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST SWD INTO THE MID-SOUTH.  STRONG
UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS NOTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR AND IS RESULTING IN
A VARIETY OF STORM MODES.  A 40 KT SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET BENEATH THE
50-70 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLE
DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR TO SUPPORT DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL AND POSSIBLE LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES. 

TWO AREAS OF HIGHER TORNADO RISKS EXIST.  ONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF IND
TO KY AND ANOTHER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH IN WRN TN SWD TO SRN AR/NW
MS.  THESE AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC REGIMES TO SUPPORT POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES
THROUGH THE EVENING.  LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICT DISTINCT PRESSURE
FALL MAXIMA AND LOCALLY BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THESE AREAS.  

OTHERWISE...A MORE LINEAR MODE TO THE STORMS HAS EVOLVED FARTHER TO
THE WEST FROM THE CHICAGO AREA TO NW AR.  POTENTIAL FOR VERY
DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
MIDWEST INTO KY IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO RISK.  ANOTHER POTENTIAL
WIND DAMAGING MCS WITH TORNADOES MAY EVOLVE OUT OF SRN AR AND TRACK
EWD ACROSS NRN/CNTRL MS LATER THIS EVENING.

FOR SHORT TERM DISCUSSIONS ON THE VARIOUS SEVERE THREATS...PLEASE
REFER TO MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS AND WATCHES.

...CNTRL GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VLY...
NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE MOVED ATOP THE COOLER AIR LOCATED NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE HAIL.  OTHERWISE...ANOTHER LINE OF TSTMS HAS
EVOLVED ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT FROM SERN MN INTO ERN IA.  AIR
MASS JUST EAST OF THIS LINE WAS ABLE TO RECOVER SOMEWHAT EARLY THIS
EVENING AND DAMAGING WIND OR ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.

...ERN TX...
00 UTC CORPUS CHRISTI SOUNDING SHOWED A SUBSTANTIAL CAP THAT
PROBABLY NOSES UP INTO ECNTRL TX.  A FEW TSTMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO
DEVELOP ALONG TAIL END OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH INTO PARTS OF CNTRL TX
AS THE CAP WAS BREACHED.  THE BACKBUILDING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
DIMINISH AS DIURNAL COOLING BEGINS.  ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD
INTO PARTS OF NRN LA LATER THIS EVENING WITH A LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND AND ISOLD TORNADO THREATS. 

...CAROLINAS/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
TSTMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
EARLIER IN THE DAY SEEM TO BE LARGELY DIURNAL IN CHARACTER.  WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART...THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.

..RACY.. 05/31/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.