[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 301641
SWODY1
SPC AC 301638

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2004

VALID 301630Z - 311200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE
HOP 60 E MKL 35 NNW TUP 40 N GWO 35 ENE ELD TXK 40 SW PGO 30 WNW FYV
45 NNE JLN 30 ENE IRK 40 WNW MMO 35 E MMO 30 N DNV 35 NE EVV 10 ENE
HOP.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
MSL 35 E GWO 45 SSW ELD TYR 35 WSW PRX 25 NNE MKO 40 N JLN 35 SSW
P35 25 SE CID 45 W LNR 25 ESE VOK 40 ESE MKE 35 W FWA 20 NE SDF 20
ESE BWG 25 NE MSL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW
MGM 30 SW LUL 25 SSE ESF 35 WSW POE 45 E CLL 25 WSW CLL 10 W AUS 45
WNW AUS 55 SE BWD 25 ESE SEP 10 SW DAL MLC 25 SSE OJC 30 WSW DSM 15
S MKT 30 SW STC 35 ENE BRD 25 SSW IWD 35 ESE MTW 40 SE DTW 20 SSE
CAK 30 ENE PKB 25 SSE 5I3 25 SE RMG 20 WNW LGC 25 NNW MGM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE DRT 45 SSW BWD
35 SSW ADM 35 SSW TUL 30 ESE EMP 25 E MHK 45 S EAR 20 WSW LBF 35 W
VTN 35 NE PIR 35 W FAR 50 W RRT ...CONT... 35 NW CTB 20 NE HLN 10
NNW 27U 55 S S80 45 SE ALW 40 NE EPH 55 NNW EAT 75 ENE BLI
...CONT... 15 WNW BUF 25 SSE NEL ...CONT... SSI 25 ESE GNV 10 N SRQ.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME ERN OK INTO MUCH
OF AR...MUCH OF SRN AND ERN MO...CENTRAL AND SRN IL...SWRN IN...WRN
KY AND WRN TN....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN
IL...WRN AND CENTRAL IN...INTO CENTRAL KY...MID TN..NRN MS INTO NERN
TX AND ERN OK....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO OH AND THE ERN OH AND TN VALLEY INTO PARTS OF
CENTRAL TX....

...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER A LARGE PART OF THE
MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE OZARKS AND TN
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE TROUGH NOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E
INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY 12Z MONDAY...WITH SOME
AMPLIFICATION LIKELY AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER SERN CO/NERN
NM ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT.  BAND OF 50-60 KT MID LEVEL WSWLY FLOW
ON SRN FRINGE OF TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS MO/NRN AR THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEY TONIGHT.  AT
HIGHER LEVELS...PATTERN EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT.

ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER WRN MN SHOULD LIFT NWD AND WEAKEN DURING
THE PERIOD.  A NEW SURFACE WAVE SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY/TONIGHT
OVER NRN/ERN MO OR CENTRAL IL...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL
FORCING WITH CO/NM IMPULSE.  BUT FEATURE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN FAIRLY
WEAK AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCS...AND THAT FROM
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TODAY...CONTINUES TO MODIFY LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS.

...AR...MO..IL INTO IN..KY AND TN...

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER NERN SD SWD THROUGH NWRN
MO...THEN SWWD INTO WEST CENTRAL TX.  ALSO...WARM FRONT REACHES FROM
NERN IL SEWD INTO SERN KY...WITH A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM THE MKC
AREA THROUGH W CENTRAL IL TO JUST S OF THE CHI AREA.  AIR MASS IS
QUITE UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND EAST OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
 SFC BASED CAPE ALREADY BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...AND LIFTED INDICES
OF -6 TO -9.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RUNNING AROUND 40 KT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND
8C/KM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF MO EXTENDING SWD/SWWD
INTO AR TOWARDS MID/LATE AFTERNOON.  CURRENT ACTIVITY ACROSS
NERN/CENTRAL IL WILL MOVE EWD...WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ALONG
THE BOUNDARY INTO NERN AND CENTRAL MO. ALSO...DEVELOPMENT WAS
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVER WHICH MAY
ENHANCE A BOUNDARY LATER TODAY ACROSS SERN MO/NERN AR INTO WRN KY
AND WRN TN.

ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.  TORNADOES AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS THE HIGH/MODERATE HIGH
RISK AREA.  GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...UVVS WILL BE AIDED BY
STRONG AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO ERN AR/SERN MO INT WRN KY...WRN AND POSSIBLY MID TN TONIGHT.

..CORFIDI/MCCARTHY/JEWELL.. 05/30/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.