[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 292013
SWODY1
SPC AC 292009

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0309 PM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
END 25 SW RSL 30 E MCK 20 ESE BBW 20 SW YKN 30 E YKN 30 SW DSM 40
ENE CNU 35 WSW JLN 25 WNW MKO 40 SE OKC 35 NNW FSI 40 WNW END.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE
LTS 50 SW RSL 25 W HLC 30 SSE LBF 35 NNW BUB 25 NW HON 35 N ATY 20
SSE AXN 30 NNE MKT 45 NNE ALO 20 NNE IRK SGF FSM DUA 30 ESE SPS 10
ESE LTS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE
DVL 55 NNE EAU 35 W CGX 20 ESE BLV 55 NNW LIT 20 SSE DAL 40 NW HDO
DRT ...CONT... 50 NW DRT 40 NNW SJT 15 N CDS 10 SSW DDC 30 NNW GCK
35 NE LAA 20 WSW LIC 45 WNW AKO 30 NNE SNY 20 SSE RAP 50 SE Y22 70
NW MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE P07 35 E BGS
40 WSW CDS 40 SE LBL 25 NE LBL 30 SSE LAA 10 E RTN 20 S 4SL 50 NNW
INW 45 ENE GCN 20 E BCE 15 WNW U28 40 W VEL 30 ENE SLC 55 SSE BYI 50
WNW SUN 45 N ALW 50 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 30 W MQT 35 NE MKG
40 NE DAY 45 SSW PSK 40 WSW HSE ...CONT... 20 SE SAV 10 SSW MCN 35
SSE AUO 10 N CEW 40 NE MCB 50 SSE SHV 25 ESE ACT 35 SW TPL 50 NW
LRD.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF OK AND KS INTO
ERN NEB...SWRN IA...AND NWRN MO....

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
OK...KS...NEB...ERN SD...SWRN MN...IA...WRN MO...AND NWRN AR....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL TX NWD ACROSS
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS...EWD INTO THE MID / UPPER MS
VALLEY...

...THE PLAINS...
DETAILS OF EVOLVING SCENARIO -- PARTICULARLY REGARDING THE STRUCTURE
OF THE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD -- REMAIN COMPLICATED AS SEVERAL
DISTINCT SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS / VORTICITY MAXIMA CONTINUE EJECTING
NEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF UPPER MAIN TROUGH.  WHILE SOME OF
THESE DETAILS ARE DISCUSSED FURTHER IN SEVERAL RECENT MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS /SWOMCD/...OVERALL SETUP REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT / WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS THIS PERIOD.

ATTM...COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOW OVER E CENTRAL SD SSWWD INTO NWRN
KS WHERE SECOND LOW EXISTS.  FRONT THEN EXTENDS WSWWD ACROSS SERN
CO.  MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SD LOW SEWD ACROSS SWRN IA
INTO ERN MO.  ADDITIONALLY...DRYLINE NOW EXTENDS FROM NEAR LOW IN
NWRN KS SWD TO NEAR THE TX / OK BORDER THEN SSWWD INTO THE
TRANSPECOS REGION OF W TX.  

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO IN N CENTRAL NEB NEAR
COLD FRONT...AND ACROSS ERN CO NORTH OF THE PALMER RIDGE. 
ADDITIONALLY...TCU / CBS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR WRN OK / THE ERN
TX PANHANDLE ALONG DRYLINE.  ALTHOUGH CONVECTION ELSEWHERE HAS
REMAINED SUPPRESSED THUS FAR...EXPECT STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS UNSTABLE AIRMASS /2000 J/KG
MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN NERN SD INCREASING TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL KS
AND WRN OK/ CONTINUES TO MOISTEN / DESTABILIZE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODERATELY-STRONG / VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS INDICATED ACROSS THE
REGION.  ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS REMAINED SOMEWHAT LIMITED --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS -- FLOW ACROSS THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE AS TROUGH APPROACHES -- WITH AZC /AZTEC NM/
PROFILER INDICATING 60 TO 65 KT MID-LEVEL WINDS AT MID-LEVELS
SUPPORTING THIS FORECAST.  THEREFORE...WIND FIELD SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL STORMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA. 
GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...EXPECT VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ADDITIONALLY...TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED
-- WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT / LARGE TORNADOES POSSIBLE -- GIVEN MOIST
LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD.  

OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO THE MO / IA
AREA...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS. 
STORMS / SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE KS / OK REGION AS
COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THIS AREA AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH.

..GOSS.. 05/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.