[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 291632
SWODY1
SPC AC 291629

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT SAT MAY 29 2004

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S
RSL HLC 40 NE MCK 30 ENE BUB 20 N SUX 25 SW DSM 40 ENE CNU 50 SW JLN
45 W MKO 35 SE OKC 35 N FSI 50 S RSL.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM LTS 35
E GAG 50 SW RSL 25 WSW HLC 30 NNE MCK 30 NNW BUB 30 WNW HON 35 N ATY
20 SSE AXN 30 NNE MKT 30 WSW MCW 30 NNW OTM 45 NNE SZL 10 SSW SGF
FSM 10 ENE DUA 20 ESE SPS LTS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W
INL 30 NW OSH 35 W CGX 55 NNW POF 45 NNW LIT 25 S DAL 40 NW HDO DRT
45 ESE P07 45 ESE BGS 30 S CDS 15 S GAG DDC 35 NNW GCK 30 NE LAA 25
SSW LIC 45 WSW AKO 20 NE AIA 20 NNW PHP 45 WNW BIS 60 NNE ISN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE ELO 30 W MQT 35
N MKG 20 NNW FDY 10 SSE EKN 40 WSW HSE ...CONT... 10 NE SSI 40 SW
MCN 15 NNE MGM 50 W SEM 30 NNW LUL 20 SW HEZ 15 WSW ESF 45 NW POE 15
N GGG 45 ESE DAL 35 SW TPL 50 NW LRD ...CONT... 35 ESE P07 35 E BGS
15 NNW CDS 40 ESE LBL 25 NE LBL 30 SSE LAA 10 E RTN 20 S 4SL 50 NNW
INW 45 ENE GCN 20 E BCE 15 WNW U28 40 W VEL 30 ENE SLC 55 SSE BYI 50
WNW SUN 45 N ALW 50 NNE 4OM.

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN NEB...WRN
IA...CNTRL AND ERN KS...NW MO AND CNTRL/NRN OK...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
THAT INCLUDES PARTS OF NEB/SD/MN/IA/MO/AR AND OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER REMAINING PARTS OF THE
PLNS AND MID/UPR MS VLY...

...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
PLAINS AND MS VLY TODAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...

...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD PROGRESSIVE TROUGH NOW OVER GRT BASIN WILL CONTINUE E THROUGH
SUNDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MOVES FROM THE PLNS TO THE OH/TN VLYS. 
HEIGHTS FALLS...INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH WILL CREATE FAVORABLE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE CNTRL U.S.

SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER THE SRN HI PLNS SHOULD CONTINUE NEWD
THROUGH THE PERIOD...REACHING THE LWR MO VLY THIS EVENING...AND THE
LWR MS VLY/WRN GRT LKS BY 12Z SUNDAY.  STRONGER UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE... EXPECTED TO EVOLVE FROM COMPLEX OF FEATURES ATTM OVER
THE SRN GRT BASIN...SHOULD TRACK E/NE AND REACH THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
REGION EARLY SUNDAY.

A SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER WRN KS LATER TODAY AS MAIN
AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS EDGES E INTO THE PLNS.  THE LOW SHOULD TRACK NE
INTO SRN MN BY 12Z SUNDAY AS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTS N INTO THE
MID/UPR MS VLY AND TRAILING DRY LINE MOVES E ACROSS THE CNTRL/ SRN
PLNS.

...NRN KS/NW MO CNTRL AND ERN NEB INTO ERN SD/MN/IA...
SURFACE HEATING AND APPROACH OF SRN PLNS UPPER IMPULSE WILL RESULT
IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE LWR MO/UPR MS VLY REGION LATER
TODAY...WITH MLCAPES LIKELY TO RANGE FROM AROUND 1500 IN SE SD/SW MN
TO AOA 3500 J/KG IN SRN AND ERN NEB/NRN KS.  BAND OF 40 KT SSWLY MID
LEVEL FLOW...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S/ AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR INVOF WARM FRONT SUGGEST GOOD CHANCE FOR
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...IN
ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL/HIGH WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE INTO A SEVERE MCS EARLY TONIGHT.  EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS/BOWS WILL LIKELY POSE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR HIGH
WIND/HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVES E AHEAD OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW INTO PARTS
OF IA/MN WI AND NW IL.

FARTHER N...ELEVATED STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR HAIL INTO THE ERN
HALF OF ND AND NRN MN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES N OF WARM FRONT.


...CNTRL/SRN KS INTO OK/NW TX...
MID LEVEL WINDS SHOULD VEER TO A MORE WSWLY DIRECTION OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE PLNS TODAY IN WAKE OF IMPULSE NOW EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
WRN KS/OK.  AN AREA OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL WARMING /PER
700 ANALYSIS/ WILL LIKELY FOLLOW PASSAGE OF THE DISTURBANCE.  BUT
EXTRAPOLATION OF FEATURES IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE COMPLEX SHOULD REACH THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION BY LATE IN
THE DAY.

SURFACE HEATING...AND INFLUX OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AIR WITH
AVERAGE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO 
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL INSTABILITY ACROSS A LARGE PART OF KS/OK AND
NW TX. STRENGTHENING CAP MAY TEMPORARILY DELAY ONSET OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  BUT COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND
BREADTH OF WARM SECTOR WILL CREATE A STRONG CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR
INTENSE/LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL/ DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES AS CAPPED IS BREACHED ALONG DRY LINE.  SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS UPPER FLOW FURTHER
STRENGTHENS WITH CONTINUED EWD MOTION OF LARGE SCALE TROUGH.  THIS
WOULD EXTEND A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EWD INTO ERN
OK...NW AR AND CNTRL AND SRN MO.

..CORFIDI.. 05/29/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.