[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281625
SWODY1
SPC AC 281622

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
DVL 35 ENE FAR 30 ESE STC 30 WSW LSE 25 S ALO 40 E OMA 20 SSW OFK 20
SW RAP 25 NE 4BQ 25 E SDY 35 SW DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 35
S CAE 10 WSW AUO ESF 55 S SHV 30 NW SHV 30 NW GLH 15 WNW HSV 50 NW
CHA 20 NW TYS 35 NNW HKY 15 WSW DAN 40 SSW RIC 15 NE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW SAV 40 NNW CEW
40 NW GPT 30 S BTR 25 NE BPT 10 ENE HOU 15 N VCT 40 WNW VCT 45 SSE
AUS 35 SE TPL 45 SSW TYR 15 SSE PRX 20 SSE FYV 20 NNE UNO 35 WNW EVV
10 WNW LUK 25 WSW MFD 15 NNE PSB 20 NE UCA 35 E MSS.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 30 W HIB 45
SSE DLH 25 ENE VOK 45 WNW MMO 15 S BRL 25 E P35 35 W LNK 35 SSE BUB
25 E LBF 30 ENE COS 45 W PUB 15 SE GUC 15 N MTJ 25 NE U28 10 S PUC
30 NW 4HV 45 NE BCE 25 ESE CDC 35 WSW SGU 40 NNE LAS 35 N DRA 35 ESE
U31 35 SSW BAM 55 WNW WMC 20 NNW 4LW 50 N MFR 35 SSE EUG 15 N ONP 30
SSW HQM 30 ESE CLM 65 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VLY EWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN PLNS/LWR MO VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE LWR
48 THIS PERIOD.  STRONG TROUGH NOW ALONG THE W CST WILL MOVE E TO A
NRN RCKYS/GRT BASIN AXIS BY 12Z SATURDAY AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
SLIGHTLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE PLAINS.  SRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER AR
SHOULD CONTINUE EWD AND WEAKEN ALONG CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING E
ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

AT LWR LEVELS...MID ATLANTIC STATES/LWR OH VLY COLD FRONT SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND REACH A CHS/MEM LINE BY
12Z SATURDAY.  BUT THE FEATURE OF LIKELY GREATER CONVECTIVE
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE SEGMENTED PREFRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/TROUGH
ATTM EXTENDING FROM SE AR/NRN MS ENE INTO GA AND THE WRN CAROLINAS. 
FARTHER W AND N...WRN END OF OH/TN VLY FRONT WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE
LWR MO VLY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.

...LWR MS/LWR TN VLY ENE TO THE CAROLINAS...
SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE LOW LEVEL DESTABILIZATION
THIS AFTERNOON INVOF COMPLEX PREFRONTAL TROUGH/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ALONG A WSW/ENE AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER SOUTH. AT THE SAME
TIME...RELATIVELY WARM AIR IN THE 800 TO 600 MB LAYER ACROSS
MS/AL/GA PER MORNING RAOBS SHOULD ERODE FROM W TO E AS AR IMPULSE
CONTINUES EWD. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY REMAIN
SHALLOW/WEAK.  BUT GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODERATE /40+ KT/ 
UNIDIRECTIONAL MEAN WSWLY FLOW...SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED LINES/CLUSTERS OF STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUSTAINED
CELLS. MAIN SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND FROM N/S ORIENTED
BOWING SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS A LITTLE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH NIGHTFALL.

FARTHER E/NE...SOMEWHAT GREATER LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST OVER NC AND NRN SC...IN AREA FARTHER REMOVED FROM WARM LAYER
ASSOCIATED WITH GULF RIDGE.  WLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND EXISTING
SURFACE PATTERN WILL KEEP CONVERGENCE QUITE WEAK...AND FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ON LEE TROUGH OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT/CSTL PLN.  BUT GIVEN
60-70 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW...AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR
SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS.  OVERALL SETUP IN THIS REGION THEREFORE
APPEARS MOST SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED
SEVERE ACTIVITY WITH HIGH WIND AND HAIL...MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

...LWR MO VLY NWWD INTO ERN MT...
LARGE SCALE WARM ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT/
EARLY SATURDAY FROM THE ERN SD INTO NRN IA/SRN MN AS LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES IN RESPONSE TO BOTH DIURNAL CYCLE AND EWD PROGRESS OF
WRN STATES TROUGH.  SATELLITE...RAOB AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT
AMPLE MID LEVEL /700 TO 500 MB/ MOISTURE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WILL
EXIST TO SUPPORT ELEVATED STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF WARM FRONT LIFTING
NEWD ACROSS REGION...WHERE 35-40 KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT CLOUD LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. 
COMBINATION OF INCREASING MASS INFLOW AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND.

IN THE MEANTIME...HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF DRY
LINE/WARM FRONT MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORM OR TWO OVER PARTS OF NRN NEB/SD. IF
SUCH ACTIVITY DOES INDEED FORM...THREAT WOULD EXIST FOR HIGH
WIND/HAIL.  A FEW SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN CONFLUENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE BLACK HILLS NW INTO ERN MT. 
COMBINATION OF MODEST /30 KT/ DEEP SHEAR AND 500-1000 MEAN MLCAPE
COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS IN ZONE OF WEAK LARGE SCALE
SUPPORT.

...OH VLY...
A FEW DIURNAL STORMS WITH A LIMITED THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/WIND MAY DEVELOP IN ZONE OF SURFACE HEATING ALONG COLD FRONT
SEGMENT OVER OH/WRN PA...BENEATH COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

..CORFIDI.. 05/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.