[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 282003
SWODY1
SPC AC 282000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 45
SE AGS 15 E AUO 20 S 0A8 20 N MCB 25 S ESF 55 S SHV 30 NNW SHV 15
ENE GLH 30 W CBM 10 WSW GAD 20 SE CHA 40 E CLT 30 SSE DAN 40 SSW RIC
15 NE ORF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW
DVL 15 NNW FAR 20 NNW STC 25 WNW RST 35 SSW ALO 40 E OMA 20 SSW OFK
20 SW RAP 25 NE 4BQ 25 E SDY 35 SW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW SAV 15 SW TOI
20 E LUL 25 ENE BTR 25 NE BPT 30 N PSX 40 WNW VCT 20 SE AUS 25 ESE
TPL 45 SSW TYR 40 S PGO 45 NNE LIT 55 ESE TBN 30 WNW EVV 10 WNW LUK
CMH 30 NNW CXY 10 SSW AVP 25 SW POU 15 NNW ALB 25 WNW EFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W RRT 35 NE BJI 30
S EAU 20 NNE DBQ 15 SW MLI 30 NNW UIN 25 E P35 35 W LNK 35 SSE BUB
50 ENE SNY 30 ENE COS 45 W PUB 20 S GJT 25 NNW U28 40 W 4HV 15 ENE
SGU 40 E DRA 35 N DRA 20 NE TPH 60 NNW ELY 40 NE EKO 25 E WMC 65 S
BNO 35 SE EUG 50 N ONP 20 S HQM 30 ESE CLM 65 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN LA ENEWD INTO THE
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...LOWER MS VALLEY ENEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS...
WEAK LAPSE RATES ACROSS MOST OF THIS REGION -- PARTICULARLY AT LOW
LEVELS -- ARE RESULTING IN ONLY LIMITED INSTABILITY ALONG REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS REGION DESPITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS.


BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM NRN LA GENERALLY ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF MS / AL INTO NR GA...AND THEN NEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
INTO FAR SERN VA.  THIS BOUNDARY -- SOUTH OF MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
ACROSS KY / SERN OH / SRN PA NEWD ACROSS WRN NEW ENGLAND -- WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.  MEANWHILE...ISOLATED CLUSTERS
OF STORMS ALONG SYNOPTIC FRONT FROM ERN OH INTO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD
DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING.

ALTHOUGH A VERY LIMITED THREAT FOR A FEW MARGINAL SEVERE REPORTS
EXISTS WITH NERN U.S. STORMS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...A
SOMEWHAT GREATER -- THOUGH STILL LIMITED -- SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
EXIST ALONG SERN U.S. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  AS MID-LEVEL VORT MAX
CONTINUES MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THIS REGION ACCOMPANIED BY 50 TO 60 KT
WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS
WITH ANY STRONGER STORM CLUSTER.  

FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM INFORMATION / DETAILS...PLEASE SEE SWOMCD
#965 AND 966.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS SEWD INTO MN / IA...
WIDESPREAD / MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS INCREASINGLY-STRONG SLY
LOW-LEVEL JET EVOLVES AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH.  RESULTING THETA-E
ADVECTION SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION AND ALLOW
STORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH LIMITED INSTABILITY
SUGGESTS ONLY A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT...SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL EXIST TO ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL.

ALTHOUGH CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD SUPPRESS STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM
ROUGHLY CENTRAL NEB SWD /SOUTH OF WARM FRONT/...SURFACE-BASED STORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR DRYLINE / WARM FRONT
INTERSECTION IN N CENTRAL / NERN NEB...AND NWWD ACROSS THE BLACK
HILLS INTO ERN MT ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY / CONFLUENCE AXIS.  WITH
SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THIS FRONT / TROUGH...ENHANCED VEERING
/ SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THREAT.

..GOSS.. 05/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.