[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 281307
SWODY1
SPC AC 281304

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0804 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2004

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE
DVL 45 NE FAR 20 S STC 35 N MCW 40 SW FOD 20 W OMA 25 WSW OLU 30 NNE
VTN 20 S Y22 40 WSW P24 40 NNE MOT 50 NE DVL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 35
SSE AHN 45 SSW ANB 30 W JAN 35 N HEZ 10 NNW MLU 40 N MLU 35 SE PBF
15 SW MEM 25 NNW MEM 20 E JBR 30 SSE POF 15 ENE POF 20 N HOP 50 NNW
CSV 35 N TYS 15 W TRI 35 NW HKY 15 S HKY 10 SW CLT 35 WSW SOP 25 ENE
FAY 10 ENE HSE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DRT 20 SSE BGS 55 NNW
CDS 30 NW END 35 ESE MVN 10 NW DAY 20 NW ELM 10 NE MSS ...CONT... 20
SSW SAV 45 NNE DHN 20 NE LCH 10 NW LRD ...CONT... 45 W RRT 10 ENE
MSN 45 E MLI 15 S BRL 25 E P35 35 W LNK 35 SSE BUB 25 E LBF 35 S LIC
35 W GJT 35 SW BCE 45 NNE LAS 55 S BIH 45 ENE MER 35 NE SAC 20 WNW
SVE 30 NNE 4LW 45 NNE RDM 10 WSW YKM 60 NW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
AND SOUTH...

CORRECTED FOR CATEGORICAL GRAPHIC

...SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CONUS THIS PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST/GREAT BASIN AREAS TO THE ROCKIES. A DEAMPLIFYING
SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SRN STREAM WILL SHEAR EAST OVER THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND TN VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONGER NRN TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...MOVING SOUTH
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...WILL WEAKEN AND STALL NORTH OF THE TN
VALLEY BY TONIGHT.

AS WRN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD THROUGH TODAY...LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE
WILL SHARPEN AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WARM FRONTOGENESIS AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS TONIGHT WITHIN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE COUPLED UPPER
JET PATTERN.

...NRN PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
THIS MORNING AS SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTENSIFIES AND WARM FRONT LIFTS
NWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY. STRONG HEATING BENEATH MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG POSSIBLE BENEATH
RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT INCREASING...CAP. SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION MAY
INITIATE NEAR DRYLINE/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION...NCNTRL/NERN NEB TO
SCNTRL/SERN SD...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
SURFACE-BASED STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED BY WEAK LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...AND WARMING MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL OCCUR WITHIN
FAVORABLY SHEARED CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND A LOW
PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THIS
ACTIVITY.

TSTMS SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...FROM ERN WY INTO SERN MT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS DIFFLUENT
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SPREADS EAST ATOP DEEPLY MIXED/WARM BOUNDARY
LAYER. WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP MOST STORMS
BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...INVERTED-V PROFILES NOTED ON FCST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE 
POSSIBLE.

ELEVATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER DARK ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT FROM ND...ACROSS ERN SD...AND INTO
NWRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS SWRN MN DURING THE
NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTENING COUPLED WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HAIL
PRODUCTION WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE SOUTH...
COMPACT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
ARKLATEX THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTH TODAY. LONG RADAR LOOPS DEPICT
OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTH INTO
NRN MS/AL AND THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS
THE OLD BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT ASCENT AND STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD SUPPORT
AREAS OF ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM LA EWD ACROSS THE SOUTH
LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY AND
TSTM INTENSITY ACROSS THESE AREAS WILL BE OFFSET BY WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NOTED ON 12Z RAOBS FROM JAN/BMX/FFC...BELT OF 50-60KT
MID LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS...OR BOWING LINE
SEGMENTS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE.

...SRN MO TO MIDDLE TN...
THERE IS LIABLE TO BE A GAP IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY GIVEN ONGOING CLOUDS/RAIN LIMITING AIRMASS
RECOVERY. TO THE NORTH OF THIS AREA HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING AND
PRESENCE OF RESIDUAL FRONTAL ZONE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
PROMOTE TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY.
A COUPLE OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL/WIND INTO EARLY EVENING
BEFORE WEAKENING.

..CARBIN.. 05/28/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.