[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271631
SWODY1
SPC AC 271627

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
HRO UMN 40 SSW SZL UIN 10 NE SPI 15 WNW MTO 40 S MTO 15 NE PAH 15
ESE JBR 35 SSW HRO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S
BNO 45 WNW BNO 35 WNW PDT 40 N ALW 50 NNE S80 MQM 10 ENE PIH TWF 80
W OWY 70 S BNO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE
ORF 30 NNW RIC 25 NE ROA 30 ENE TYS 25 ESE MKL 10 SE LIT 10 NNW DAL
35 NNE JCT DRT ...CONT... 40 SSW P07 30 SSW INK 35 SE HOB 30 WSW CDS
30 E END 45 W CNU 30 S FNB 30 W LWD 35 NE OTM 25 N MMO 15 NW LAN 60
N MTC ...CONT... 45 N BUF 10 SE PSB 30 SE DOV.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW CRE 40 N AGS 25
WSW GLH 20 NW LFK 45 S AUS 50 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 25 WNW BOS
10 ENE GON.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE MOT 35 S JMS
25 SSE SPW 30 SW DSM CID 20 NNW LSE 45 ENE EAU ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DUG 65 ESE SOW
10 ESE GNT 50 SW CAO 30 SSE LBL 20 ESE P28 30 E CNK 15 SSE GRI 25 N
BBW 40 NNW MHN 20 WSW CDR 55 W CDR 40 ENE CYS 20 ENE LIC 10 E PUB 15
NE MTJ 45 W PUC 45 E TVL 50 SSW TVL 45 E UKI 50 ESE EKA 35 WSW MFR
55 NNE PDX 30 ENE BLI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF
MO...CENTRAL/SRN IL AND FAR NRN AR...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/DELMARVA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...

...OZARKS INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/OH RIVER VALLEY...
SEVERAL SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE PERSISTING ACROSS THIS REGION
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION...WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ESEWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  MUCH OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY EWD WILL REMAIN
ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF STRONG CAPPING...WITH MODEST HEATING LIKELY
SUPPORTING A LARGE RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF UPPER 60F/LOWER 70F SURFACE DEW
POINTS.  IN ADDITION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE WRN GREAT LAKES/MID
MS RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  ASSOCIATED 60-70 KT WLY MID LEVEL
JET WILL LIKEWISE SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF MO AND IL/SRN IND
THROUGH THE DAY.

ATTM...EXPECT CAP TO WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT OVER SERN IA/NRN IL AND INVOF
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS ERN MO INTO THE LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEY BY 20Z. FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...EARLY
CLOUDINESS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE IMAGERY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY ACROSS
LOWER MI FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  HOWEVER...CLEARING WILL LIKELY SHIFT
EWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALLOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP FOR A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS
LOWER/MID 60F SURFACE DEW POINTS SPREAD ACROSS IND/SERN LOWER MI.

STRENGTH OF SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS/LOWER OH RIVER
VALLEYS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SWRN EXTENT OF HIGHER END THREAT
WILL BE LIMITED BY STRENGTHENING CAP INTO THE OZARKS. 
HOWEVER...GIVEN PRESENCE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND APPROACHING
SURFACE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN MDT RISK AS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SSEWD ALONG THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS SRN MO INTO NRN AR BY LATER THIS EVENING.

...SRN PLAINS...
PRONOUNCED SRN STREAM SYSTEM NOW EJECTING ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES
WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT LIFTS ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.  ETA IS PERSISTENT IN SHIFTING A
70-80 KT H5 SPEED MAX ACROSS SWRN TX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. 
DRY LINE WILL LIKELY REMAIN FROM CENTRAL OK INTO SWRN TX WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
AFTERNOON.  AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY OVER SWRN TX AND SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY THE MID AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING INTO NWRN TX.  SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS WITH MORE LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES NEARER THE MID
LEVEL JET OVER SWRN TX.  OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE DRY LINE INTO CENTRAL/ERN OK...
HOWEVER CAPPING MAY BE MORE INHIBITIVE INTO N-CENTRAL TX AND OK.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE CHESAPEAKE...
AREA SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AREA OF
MODEST SHEAR AND WEAK CAP.  THEREFORE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND NEAR RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES.  GIVEN AMOUNT OF CAPE AND
SHEAR EXPECTED...STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

...ERN ORE/ID...
PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO THE PAC NW TODAY
AND INCREASE WSWLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. 
THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS RATHER MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL
IN THE 50S.  THOUGH CLOUDS NOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WILL OVERSPREAD
ERN ORE AND WRN ID...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SUFFICIENT HEATING
SHOULD OVERCOME INHIBITION AND SUPPORT AND INCREASED THREAT OF DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION...PENDING
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE THREATS OF LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.