[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 271313
SWODY1
SPC AC 271309

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE
FSM 50 SSW JLN 40 SSW SZL COU 50 WNW STL 10 NW BLV 10 W MDH 30 SSE
CGI 20 ESE JBR 40 ESE FSM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S
BNO 45 WNW BNO 35 WNW PDT 40 N ALW 50 NNE S80 MQM 10 ENE PIH TWF 80
W OWY 70 S BNO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW
P07 25 N FST 30 SW LBB 30 SW CDS 20 WNW FSI 45 SSE PNC 15 SSW CNU
OJC 20 ENE UIN 20 SE CGX 15 NW LAN 60 N MTC ...CONT... ERI 35 SSW
EKN 25 SSW LYH 25 SW TYS 40 SSW MKL 45 N TXK FTW 15 W BWD DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 50 WNW 3HT
45 WNW CPR 35 N DGW 30 NE 81V 70 NNW GGW ...CONT... 55 N MOT 50 S
JMS 20 SE BKX YKN 45 WSW IML 30 WSW COS 30 ENE SLC 55 WNW ELY 45 S
U31 65 NNW BIH 50 S TVL 15 SSE MHS 25 WSW MFR 55 W YKM 50 E BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE CHS 15 ENE CAE
30 N GWO 35 SSE GGG 50 ESE SAT 15 S LRD ...CONT... DUG 20 ESE SOW
DHT 35 W P28 50 ESE OMA 25 WNW LSE 30 N IWD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/SRN
MO AND NRN AR FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN TX ENEWD ACROSS THE
MID MS VALLEY TO OH VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ORE/FAR SERN WA INTO
CENTRAL/SRN ID...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE U.S. TODAY...AS A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIGS SEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW.  DOWNSTREAM UPPER
TROUGH CENTERED OVER FAR SRN AZ ATTM PER WV IMAGERY WILL TRACK EWD
THIS FORECAST PERIOD REACHING THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF WRN TX BY 12Z
FRIDAY.  BAND OF STRONG WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND
FROM THE CENTRAL-SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AS AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL STATES MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION/UPPER OH VALLEY.

AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
IL/IND/OH INTO PA WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS OH/SRN LOWER MI IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MID MS VALLEY. 
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM SERN LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS
CENTRAL IL TO SRN MO AND NERN OK BY 00Z...WHILE A DRY LINE WILL
EXTEND SWWD FROM CENTRAL OK TO AROUND SPS AND THEN SWD TO THE TX BIG
BEND REGION.  SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY NEAR ICT...IS PROGGED TO TRACK
EWD ACROSS SRN MO REACHING ERN MO/SRN IL AREA BY 00Z.

...ERN OK/MO/AR TO OH/TN VALLEYS...
SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS ALONG/S OF
THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S.  STEEP LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM EXPECTED ACROSS
SRN MO/NRN AR AND SURFACE HEATING IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MO WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 2500-3500 J/KG OVER THESE STATES. SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
ALONG THE OH VALLEY WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO MOVE NEWD TODAY AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM IND INTO SRN
LOWER MI AND OH/WV.  60+ KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THIS REGION
WILL RESULT IN STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS IND INTO OH BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SRN LOWER
MI SWWD ACROSS IND AND CENTRAL IL TO CENTRAL/SRN MO AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.  VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN MO...WITH MAINLY A HAIL/ DAMAGING WIND THREAT
NEWD INTO IND/LOWER MI ALONG THE COLD FRONT.  SEVERE HAIL/WIND
THREAT WILL MOVE INTO OH THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING ESEWD.  MODELS SUGGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS SRN MO/IL
WILL MOVE/DEVELOP ESEWD INTO NRN AR/SRN IND TO KY/TN THIS EVENING
WITH A TRANSITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS A WSWLY 45-50 KT LLJ
DEVELOPS FROM NERN AR INTO KY IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/UPPER OH VALLEY.

...WRN/NRN TX INTO SRN OK...
ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN TX ARE AN INDICATION
OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SRN AZ UPPER
TROUGH.  FURTHER INCREASE IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE DRY LINE OVER WRN TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AS THE EXIT REGION OF
A 70 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA.  STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES WRN TX OVERNIGHT...TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS
AND MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NRN TX/SRN OK INTO WRN AR.

...ERN ORE/SERN WA/CENTRAL-SRN ID...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE PAC NW INTO NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVES INTO THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS WITH HAIL.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 05/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.