[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 270533
SWODY1
SPC AC 270529

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 AM CDT THU MAY 27 2004

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
JBR 45 N LIT 55 E FSM 45 WNW FYV 35 ENE CNU 30 WSW SZL 10 NNW COU 40
SSW DEC 45 NNW EVV 30 SW EVV 40 N DYR 30 NE JBR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW
MEM 45 NNW TXK 10 SE MWL 25 NNW JCT DRT 40 ESE P07 30 SW P07 10 S
FST 20 W BGS 50 SSW LTS 20 WSW OKC 40 NNE PNC 10 E MKC 20 N UIN 40
ESE MMO 40 ENE MIE 40 WNW HTS 25 E JKL 35 NNW CSV 50 E MKL 10 NNW
MEM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S
BNO 45 WNW BNO 50 WSW PDT 40 N ALW 20 E PUW 65 NW 27U 20 N SUN 35 NE
OWY 80 N WMC 70 S BNO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW CTB 50 WNW 3HT
45 WNW CPR 35 N DGW 30 NE 81V 70 NNW GGW ...CONT... 55 N MOT 50 S
JMS 20 SE BKX YKN 45 WSW IML 30 WSW COS 30 ENE SLC 55 WNW ELY 45 WNW
TPH 65 ESE FAT 30 ESE FAT 15 SSE MHS 25 WSW MFR 20 NNW PDX 50 E BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CHS 35 SSE AHN
30 SW UOX 10 NNE GGG 25 W AUS 15 S LRD ...CONT... 20 WSW FHU 30 SW
SOW DHT 35 W P28 50 ESE OMA 25 WNW LSE 30 N IWD.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND SRN MO...EXTREME NRN
AR AND SRN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO AND MID
MS VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN OR AND SERN
WA INTO WRN ID...

...SYNOPSIS...
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE TODAY AS TROUGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE OVER AZ MOVES INTO WRN SECTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS DURING
THE PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  MODELS DEPICT QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM NC WWD INTO SRN MO DURING THE EARLY PERIODS...BUT THE ETA MODEL
LOSES THIS FEATURE BY 28/00Z AS STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE MS VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.  WOULD
ESTIMATE THAT BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN PRESENT OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

COMPLEX SITUATION WILL BE ACROSS THIS REGION AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO REDEFINE THE BOUNDARIES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD.  AIR MASS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE S
OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT DRIFTS NWD INTO CENTRAL MO AND CENTRAL IL
THEN EXTEND SEWD ACROSS SWRN OH INTO CENTRAL NC.  MODELS INDICATE
LIFTED INDICES WILL BE -8 TO -10 ACROSS PARTS OF MO /CAPE BETWEEN
3000 AND 4000 J/KG/.  UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OF 110-120 KT IS
EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM W CENTRAL OK ENEWD ACROSS E CENTRAL MO THEN
EWD OVER NERN NC.  LOW LEVEL JET OF 40-50 KT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
OVER ERN OK INTO SWRN MO...THEN SHIFT EWD AND EXTEND FROM NERN AR
INTO SERN OH BY 28/00Z.  THUS...FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL RESULT
OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EVENING.

AREAS ACROSS SERN MO...SRN IL...SRN IN...NWRN KY AND POSSIBLY SWRN
OH WILL BE IN AN AREA WHERE BRN SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 80 AND 110 M2/S2 WITH CAPE OF 3000 J/KG.  THIS AREA LOOKS
THE BEST FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 
MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA AS CAPE
VALUES ARE HIGH AND WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS ARE AROUND 9000 FT AGL.


...PARTS OF OR...WA AND ID...

HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE THURSDAY.  MODELS INDICATE
UPPER LEVEL JET OF 100-110 KT WILL EXTEND FROM NRN CA INTO SW AND W
CENTRAL ID AFTER THURSDAY MORNING...WITH MID LEVEL JET OF 60-70 KT
PULLING MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES OF -22C TO -26C. 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AFTER 18Z ENHANCING UVVS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE UPPER JET EXIT REGION. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE  DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
WILL SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL STORMS.  LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT GIVEN SOME FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER
EXTREME ERN OR...AND W CENTRAL ID...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...MID ATLANTIC REGION...

STRONG THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY UNDERNEATH UPPER JET EXIT REGION.  AIR MASS ALONG AND JUST
S OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPE NEAR/AROUND
2000 J/KG.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME STRONG WINDS AND
HAIL AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KT. BUT FEEL THAT STORMS
MAY NOT BE ORGANIZED AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.