[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 270106
SWODY1
SPC AC 270102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

VALID 270100Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW
DLH 45 NE MSP 30 SSE RWF FSD 20 E HON 35 ESE ABR 55 SW FAR 15 ENE
FAR 10 SE BJI 20 SW DLH.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW
MRF 25 NNW HOB 10 NE PVW 40 N CSM ICT 20 ENE TOP 45 SSW IRK 20 W DEC
25 SSE IND UNI PIT DUJ UCA GFL PSF POU ABE TTN 15 SSE NEL ...CONT...
10 WNW ILM SPA MKL 30 SE FYV 45 N MWL 35 ESE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CHS ATL MSL
LIT PRX 40 SE DRT ...CONT... 40 SSW DMN 65 ESE SOW 10 N GNT RTN LBL
HUT SLN HLC GLD 10 SSE SNY AIA 10 SE PIR MBG JMS 10 WNW DVL 55 NNE
MOT ...CONT... 35 E MQT 40 SSW ESC 25 ENE MSN JVL BEH 20 SSE TOL 50
NNW MFD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF MLS IDA 30
NNW TWF BNO MFR EUG YKM 4OM 35 N 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION
WWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SYNOPSIS...
WNWLY/WLY FLOW EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S. AROUND MID/UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM JAMES BAY INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  ALSO...
THERE IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER SWRN AZ/NRN BAY OF CA
MOVING EWD INTO NWRN MEXICO.  FLOW FROM THIS FEATURE EXTENDS
NEWD/EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE TN VALLEY AS FLATTENED RIDGE
EXTENDS E-W OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.

COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD ACROSS ERN NY STATE INTO THE DELMARVA REGION
...THEN WWD INTO THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY WHERE SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARIES ARE DRAPED OVER MO AND KS.  ALSO...PRONOUNCED DRYLINE
EXTENDS FROM A LOW OVER WRN KS SWD THROUGH NWRN OK AND NWRN TX INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX.

...VA SWWD ACROSS NC INTO THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY...

LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EWD FROM E CENTRAL VA
INTO NWRN NC WWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE TN VALLEY. AIR MASS AHEAD OF
THE LINE CONTINUES TO BE UNSTABLE WITH CAPES TO 4000 J/KG.  RAOB
DATA FROM GSO SHOWS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM WITH
30-55 KT MID LEVEL FLOW.  THUS...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
EWD THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE THREAT OF MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...MIDDLE MS VALLEY...

CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS E
CENTRAL MO AND SRN IL INTO SWRN IN.  ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING
UNDERNEATH THE UPPER LEVEL JET EXIT REGION AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE EWD INTO SWRN OH/N CENTRAL KY OVERNIGHT.  SWLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW NEAR 50 KT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE SUPPORTING FAVORABLE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT. ACTIVITY IS ALSO WORKING JUST NORTH
OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH HAS ENHANCED 0-3KM STORM
RELATIVE HELICITY OF 350-450 M2/S2 FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  THIS
AREA IS FORECAST BY THE 21Z RUC TO CONTINUE INTO SRN INDIANA NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO.

...SRN PLAINS INTO W TX...

STORMS FORMED AGAIN ON THE SURFACE DRYLINE ACROSS EXTREME WRN OK SWD
INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WERE OVER N
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OK WITH FAIRLY HIGH LCLS WITH STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8C/KM.  FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS AROUND
35-40 KT.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE FEW HOURS AS TREND
HAS BEEN FOR THE STORMS TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE OFF THE DRYLINE. 
ACTIVITY OVER N CENTRAL OK MAY CONTINUE INTO SWRN MO AS THEY MOVE IN
THE VICINITY OF SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SERN KS.

...ERN NRN PLAINS INTO MN...

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN SD INTO
CENTRAL MN IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A
LOW OVER ERN ND SWWD INTO N CENTRAL NE..THEN NWWD INTO S CENTRAL MT.
 ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE OCCURRING IN LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE WITH SLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 40-50 KT UNDERNEATH STRONG WNWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW PROVIDING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 35 KT.  EXPECT ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO AS SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.

..MCCARTHY.. 05/27/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.