[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261958
SWODY1
SPC AC 261955

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BRD 10
SW STC 10 NNW OTG FSD 10 NW MHE ABR 55 SW FAR 10 WSW GFK 10 SE BJI
BRD.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
ILM SPA MKL 15 SSE FYV 10 SSW SPS 35 ESE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF
25 NNW HOB 10 NE PVW 40 N CSM ICT EMP 40 NNE SZL BLV BMG UNI PIT DUJ
UCA GFL PSF POU ABE TTN 15 SSE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 65 ESE SOW
10 N GNT RTN LBL HUT SLN HLC GLD 10 SSE SNY AIA 10 SE PIR MBG JMS 10
WNW DVL 55 NNE MOT ...CONT... 35 E MQT 40 SSW ESC 25 ENE MSN JVL BEH
20 SSE TOL 50 NNW MFD ...CONT... 30 ENE CHS ATL MSL LIT PRX 40 SE
DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF MLS IDA 30
NNW TWF BNO MFR EUG YKM 4OM 35 N 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS
WESTWARD INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN
NORTHERN PLAINS....

...OZARKS INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES...
INTENSE SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK CONTINUES TO PROGRESS AROUND
CREST OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION. 
MODELS SUGGEST RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER NORTHERN
BRANCH TROUGH...AND STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAK IS FORECAST
TO RAPIDLY REDEVELOP EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST STATES.

DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN BRANCHES OF WESTERLIES HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO EVOLUTION OF ONGOING LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITIES SUGGEST SURFACE
COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITHIN THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH WILL SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH 50+ KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL AID EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS ABOUT EXTENT OF DAMAGING WIND
THREAT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.

NEW CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EASTWARD IN ZONE OF ENHANCED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE EXTENDING AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AREA.  ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY...IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...CLOUDS/
PRECIPITATION HAS HAMPERED HEATING...AND BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS
WESTERLY...WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM RELATIVE INFLOW/CONVERGENCE. 
FURTHERMORE...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND DOWNSTREAM PRECIPITATION
BELOW THE ANVIL IS STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM.

THUS...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY...THREAT
APPEARS LIMITED.  BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS
ACTIVITY SPREADS/REDEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO VICINITY OF LEE TROUGH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AFTER 27/00Z.  BOUNDARY LAYER HAS HEATED
TO AROUND 90F...AND WILL BE SLOW TO COOL/STABILIZE THIS EVENING.

WITH SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH STILL WELL UPSTREAM...BUT BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EASTWARD...STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL PERSIST NEAR LOW/
MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING UPSTREAM OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM.  BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR THE KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE
BORDER...BUT MAY CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI.  IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN THREAT...
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY THREAT.  WARMING
MID-LEVELS...STRENGTHENING INHIBITION...ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE
WESTERN LIMIT TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT... SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW/TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD
TOWARD THE COLORADO VALLEY...BUT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY
TO CONFINE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO THE VICINITY OF SURFACE
DRY LINE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG NEAR DRY LINE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS
THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW
PROVIDING SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
AIR MASS ALONG EAST OF SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS HAS
BECOME WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING.  MOST
UNSTABLE SURFACE-BASED CAPE IS AS HIGH AS 1500 J/KG NEAR DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.  AIDED BY APPROACH OF
FAIRLY VIGOROUS NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK...ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND AN
ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT.

FOR MORE DETAIL ON ALL ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PLEASE REFER TO
LATEST SPC MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/.

..KERR.. 05/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.