[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261636
SWODY1
SPC AC 261633

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW
STC 20 ENE FRM 20 ENE SUX 15 NNE OFK 50 W YKN 25 NE HON 60 SW FAR 15
N FAR 25 NW BRD 15 SW STC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE
CRE 45 SSW CLT 20 NE HOT 40 NNW MWL 35 NW SJT 35 ESE P07 ...CONT...
55 SSW MRF 25 NNW HOB 45 E AMA 40 NNE ICT MKC 20 SW MTO 30 SW DAY 30
SSE CAK 30 NNE SYR 15 NNW GFL 30 WNW EEN 35 SW POU 20 W TTN 20 S
ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW DMN 40 NW ABQ
25 NW LVS TCC 10 W AMA 35 WSW GAG 25 N BBW 15 ESE ABR 45 SE JMS 10
SE BIS 30 SW MLS 30 NW MLD 30 S WMC 30 NNE RBL 25 ENE 4BK 30 ESE OTH
50 E BLI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E MQT 40 SSW ESC
25 ENE MSN 35 ENE MLI 35 NW LAF 20 SSE FWA 50 NNW MFD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CHS 40 N MCN 10
E GWO 35 NNW GGG 50 ENE JCT 40 SE DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE
SRN MID ATLANTIC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...MO INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THIS REGION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY /REF
SWOMCD 909/.  ACTIVITY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY ATTM...AND WILL BE ON
SRN FRINGE OF STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX.  EXPECT STORMS
TO BEGIN TAPPING A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER BY 17Z
SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM SWRN MO/SRN IL ENEWD INTO
SERN OH.  PRIMARY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OVERSPREAD KY AND POSSIBLY
TN...THOUGH WRN EXTENT WILL BE LIMITED BY STRONG CAPPING EVIDENT ON
MORNING RAOBS AT LIT AND OKC.  DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL INCREASE...
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.

FARTHER WEST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING FROM ERN KS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
MO TO THE NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT.  AS HEATING PERSISTS...CAP WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN ALONG THE FRONT AND COULD SUPPORT INCREASED SEVERE
THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THIS REGION...GIVEN
50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

...UPPER OH RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC/DELMARVA...
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW MOVING INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL
CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN NY/PA THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS REGION REMAINS ON
NERN EXTEND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW MOVING OUT OF THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...STORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS AIR MASS BECOMES
MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AND INVOF RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER SRN PA AND THE CHESAPEAKE
REGION/ERN NC AS MODERATE INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP DEVELOP. 
ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS
STORMS SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING...GIVEN THE 40-50 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR EXPECTED.  EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED
BY SURFACE RIDGING AND STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NOW ENTRENCHED OVER ERN
NY AND ERN PA.

...SRN PLAINS...
LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS HEATING WILL BE RATHER STRONG OVER
MUCH OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO SWRN OK TODAY.  THIS WILL LIKELY
OVERCOME CAPPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SUPPORT STRONG
INSTABILITY ALONG WRN EDGE OF RICH GULF MOISTURE AXIS. VIGOROUS
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE DRY LINE POSSIBLY JUST BEFORE 21Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.  ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP
FARTHER INTO OK ALONG PERSISTENT SURFACE FRONT AS HEATING WILL BE
STRONGER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY.

REGION REMAINS WITHIN MODEST SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND SHOULD SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY.  STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY HIGH BASED AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INCREASE
WELL INTO THE 90S OVER WRN TX... SUGGESTING PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...NRN PLAINS...
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S SHOULD SPREAD NWD INTO
ERN SD TODAY...AHEAD OF STRONG SYSTEM NOW OVER ERN MT. SUFFICIENT
HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT SBCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AS IT SHIFTS INTO ERN SD LATER TODAY. 
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 35-45
KT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL AS STORMS SHIFT EWD THIS EVENING.  ERN EXTENT OF ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED AS BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS...THOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A THREAT OF
SEVERE INTO CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING.

..EVANS/BANACOS.. 05/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.