[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 261304
SWODY1
SPC AC 261301

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
CRE 45 S CLT 50 WNW AND 30 NE UOX 15 NE HOT DUA 40 SSE SPS 40 NW SJT
40 ENE FST 35 NNE FST 20 E INK 50 SSW LBB 35 SE GAG 35 SW EMP 35 SW
OJC 45 S MTO 20 SSW DAY 15 ESE CAK 15 NNW BFD 30 S ART 25 NW GFL 20
E ALB POU 25 NW EWR 15 S NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CHS 25 SW GAD
35 NNW ELD 35 NW AUS 65 W COT ...CONT... 75 WNW MRF 50 N HOB 30 S
AMA 45 NE AMA LBL 25 N GCK 20 SSW ABR 30 SSW BIS 25 NNW 4BQ 50 W RKS
40 NNE ENV 55 NW SVE 50 ESE CEC 55 SE OLM 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 10
ENE PLN 25 S MTW 25 ENE CGX 40 SSE SBN 30 ENE FWA 40 SE DTW.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS WRN TX INTO
OK...AND EWD ACROSS OH/TN VALLEYS TO MID ATLANTIC STATES NWD TO
PA/NY...

...SYNOPSIS...
NERN PACIFIC TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE PAC NW TODAY ALLOWING
DOWNSTREAM CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SRN CA TO MOVE ESEWD TO THE LOWER
CO RIVER VALLEY/NRN BAJA.  STRONG ZONAL FLOW /50-70 KT AT 500 MB/
WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE ERN STATES. LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS STRONGER MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY FROM PORTIONS
OF THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD ACROSS THE TN/OH VALLEYS TO MIDDLE AND NRN
ATLANTIC STATES.  UPPER TROUGH IN THE NRN STREAM WILL MOVE ESEWD
ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SERN KS THIS AFTERNOON AND ELEVATED STORMS FROM ERN SD/NERN
NEB INTO SRN MN/NRN IA THIS EVENING.

MUCH OF THE TSTM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. 
THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY FROM SRN MO TO THE MID OH VALLEY...WHILE THE ERN
EXTENT MOVES SEWD ACROSS NY/PA AS A COLD FRONT REACHING NWRN VT TO
SWRN PA BY 00Z.  MEANWHILE...THE WRN EXTENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NWD TODAY INTO NRN OK...AS A DRY LINE MIXES EWD INTO CENTRAL
KS TO WRN OK AND NWRN TX BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.

...NY/VT SWD TO PA/NJ/MD/DE/NRN VA...
UPPER TROUGH OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES AND WEAKER LOWER MO VALLEY SHORT
WAVE THROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...WILL
APPROACH NERN STATES BY 00Z WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING OVER
THIS REGION AT THAT TIME.  SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS NY/PA/MD IN THE WAKE OF ONGOING TSTMS CURRENTLY
MOVING ENEWD ACROSS NERN PA INTO SERN NY.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES INTO A MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS
SRN NY/PA INTO NRN VA TO THE DELMARVA AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH SUPERCELLS.  HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

...SRN VA/NC...
WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRONGER ACROSS THIS REGION TODAY
SUPPORTING STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. 
ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL RESULTING IN MLCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG OVER THIS AREA...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND LEE TROUGH...WITH
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.  MARGINAL
INSTABILITY MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE.

...SRN PLAINS TO TN/OH VALLEYS...
EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION WILL
LIKELY LIMIT THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING AND AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS. NONETHELESS...AN AXIS OF MLCAPE
VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTING
ORGANIZED STORMS.  WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE OH
VALLEY SHOULD AID TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE SLIGHT
RISK...WHILE SRN PORTION OF NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL AID THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ACROSS SERN KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  INCREASED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY LINE AND RETREATING WARM FRONT
OVER OK SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

...NERN NEB INTO PORTIONS SRN MN...
NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
RESULTING IN A RETURN OF SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS. 
THIS RETURN FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS ERN NEB TO SRN MN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 50S
REACHING SRN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON.  50 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK WITH
NRN STREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN CAPE BEARING SHEAR VALUES
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...BUT MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE
SHOULD LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE.  THUS...LOW PROBABILITIES WILL BE ADDED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN SD/NERN NEB INTO SRN MN FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL
THREAT FROM ELEVATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL
WAA.

..PETERS/CROSBIE.. 05/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.