[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 260555
SWODY1
SPC AC 260551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT WED MAY 26 2004

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E
ORF 15 ENE RWI 35 W SOP 20 W AND 25 NNE GAD 20 ENE TUP 15 SW LIT 40
S MLC 10 NW DUA 40 SSE SPS 40 NW SJT 40 ENE FST 35 NNE FST 20 E INK
50 SSW LBB 25 E GAG 20 NE ICT 45 SW OJC 10 WNW JEF 20 N EVV 30 SSW
LUK 25 N UNI 15 SSW DUJ 30 SW ELM 15 NW UCA 50 NE UCA 25 NW GFL 10 W
PSF 10 ESE JFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE SAV 35 SW CBM
25 W SHV 35 NW AUS 65 W COT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW PLN 35 W MBL
10 NE MKE 35 S CGX 25 W MIE 30 NNE DAY 25 W CAK 30 NNE ERI.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 WNW MRF 50 N HOB
30 S AMA 45 NE AMA LBL 25 N GCK 20 SSW ABR 30 SSW BIS 25 NNW 4BQ 50
W RKS 40 NNE ENV 75 NNW WMC 50 NNW LMT 25 ESE SLE 70 WNW 4OM.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE W AND NW
TX...THE SRN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...OH AND TN
VALLEYS...MID-ATLANTIC STATES...NEW ENGLAND STATES......

...OH AND TN VALLEY...

A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY TODAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE BROAD
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE REGION. A STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD BE POSITIONED EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE OH RIVER AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTIVE INITIATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY ACROSS SRN MO
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND STRONG CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. A CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD
ACROSS KY AND TN DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
MID-LEVEL JET. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F
WHICH SHOULD YIELD LOW-END MODERATE INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH
WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 50 TO 60 KT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS
EARLY. HOWEVER...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD PROMOTE A
GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A LINEAR STRUCTURE AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PROMOTE A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STEEP AND RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPS (-10C AT 500 MB) WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. IF A
COLD POOL CAN GENERATE...SCATTERED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE LIKELY. AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES EWD INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS KY AND
VA...WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

...W AND NW TX/SW OK...

A DRYLINE SHOULD BE PRESENT AGAIN TODAY ACROSS W TX WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS SRN OK. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN
THE UPPER 60S F ALONG THE CAP ROCK. LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS FORECAST
TO BE WEAK ACROSS THE REGION BUT STRONG SFC HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR W TX SHOW INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM
ABOUT 45 KT AT MIDDAY TO 55 TO 60 KT BY THE EARLY EVENING AND THIS
WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH AN INCREASING THREAT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 8.0 C/KM
AND THIS WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
POTENTIAL. THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING AS
THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...AS INSTABILITY DROPS
OVERNIGHT...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE.

...NY/PA/NJ/DE/MD...

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A LOW LOCATED ACROSS WRN NY. AS THIS
FEATURE DRIFTS EWD INTO ERN NY TODAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SEWD
AND SHOULD BE ORIENTED FROM SSW TO NNE FROM MD TO NH. A STRONG
VORTICITY MAX OVER SRN OH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL DRIFT
TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE STORMS
MOVE EWD INTO A MOIST AXIS WITH UPPER 60S F SFC DEWPOINTS...A SEVERE
THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000
J/KG SHOULD FAVOR MULTICELL STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT WIND
DAMAGE. A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE HAIL ESPECIALLY NEAR PEAK
HEATING AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
GRADUALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

..BROYLES/CROSBIE.. 05/26/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.