[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 252004
SWODY1
SPC AC 252000

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N
SDF 35 WSW LUK 25 W HTS 30 S HTS 10 SSW JKL 40 NNE BWG 25 S OWB 40
WSW OWB 30 WSW EVV 10 NNW OWB 25 WSW SDF 15 N SDF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM
CLT CHA 35 NW LIT PGO DUA ABI P07 MRF HOB PVW P28 CNU STL IND FDY 40
NW YNG BFD PHL 20 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE MOT 45 SE MOT
70 WSW DIK 65 NE DGW 45 E SNY 40 WSW RSL 20 NNE HUT 25 N EMP 30 ENE
STJ 20 NE PIA HTL 15 E APN ...CONT... 15 NNE EFK 15 SW EWB
...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 40 N PIE ...CONT... 40 SE TLH 40 WNW AYS 30
WSW MCN LGC TCL GGG 45 ENE JCT 10 WNW DRT ...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 35
SW ROW 55 N ROW 30 SSW CAO 20 NE ALS 45 N CEZ 15 E SGU 50 N DAG 25 N
EDW 50 SE FAT 20 NNE MER 45 NNE SAC 45 WSW SVE 15 W SVE 40 E SVE RNO
40 ENE TVL 30 ESE NFL 20 SSE WMC 55 NW OWY 70 SSE S80 35 N 3DU 65
ENE CTB.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
OHIO VALLEY/MID ATLANTIC STATES...AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS....

UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHERN BRANCH OF WESTERLIES IS
SHIFTING EAST OF THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES AND NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS AREA.  SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS
WILL OCCUR AS INTENSE HIGH-LEVEL JET...EMANATING FROM THE LOWER
LATITUDE PACIFIC...CONTINUES TO LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/
CENTRAL ROCKIES/CENTRAL PLAINS REGION.

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT OF VERY MOIST AIR MASS NEAR
WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY HAS SUPPORTED
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PAST FEW HOURS.  LIFTED PARCELS...
ORIGINATING IN BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF FRONTAL ZONE WITH DEW POINTS
NEAR 70F...APPEAR TO POSSESS MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THE 1500 TO 2500
J/KG RANGE...SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL.

MERGER OF JET STREAK IN BASE OF NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH...AND LEADING
EDGE OF INTENSE SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK TOPPING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...HAS CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER
FLOW FIELD WHICH IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  FURTHER
EVOLUTION INTO ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL/
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  PARTIALLY IN RESPONSE TO EVOLVING UPSTREAM
PATTERN...ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO PROPAGATE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTH OF FRONT ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER...FROM CINCINNATI TO PADUCAH.  AS THIS OCCURS...AND
SURFACE POOL DEVELOPS/STRENGTHENS...RISK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING.  40 TO 50 KT WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF NORTHERN BRANCH JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THIS
POTENTIAL...AND DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST WITH FORWARD PROPAGATING
SYSTEM INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE EVENING... AND THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG DRY LINE AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 
OTHERWISE...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY NOT OCCUR ALONG
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST TEXAS UNTIL LATER
THIS EVENING /NEAR OR AFTER 26/03Z/.  MODELS SUGGEST ONE OR MORE
WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL MOIST PLUME SOUTH OF
INTENSE ANTICYCLONIC JET STREAK WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INHIBITION. 
TENDENCY LIKELY WILL BE FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ON COOL/NORTH SIDE
OF RETREATING SURFACE FRONT...WITH VERY MOIST LOW-LEVELS
CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE CAPE BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
STRONGER UPDRAFTS SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL.  CONVECTION LIKELY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS OKLAHOMA/ NORTHWEST TEXAS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

..KERR.. 05/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.