[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251553
SWODY1
SPC AC 251549

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1049 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ILM
CLT CHA 35 NW LIT PGO DUA ABI P07 MRF HOB PVW P28 CNU STL IND FDY 40
NW YNG BFD PHL 20 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 40 WNW AYS
30 WSW MCN 30 SW ANB 35 SW CBM 10 SE GGG 45 ENE JCT 10 WNW DRT
...CONT... 75 SSW GDP 10 ENE CNM 15 N CVS 30 SSW CAO 20 NE ALS 45 N
CEZ 15 E SGU 50 N DAG 25 N EDW 50 SE FAT 20 NNE MER 45 NNE SAC 45
WSW SVE 15 W SVE 40 E SVE RNO 40 ENE TVL 30 ESE NFL 20 SSE WMC 55 NW
OWY 70 SSE S80 35 N 3DU 65 ENE CTB ...CONT... 70 NE MOT 45 SE MOT 70
WSW DIK 65 NE DGW 45 E SNY 40 WSW RSL 20 NNE HUT 25 N EMP 30 ENE STJ
20 NE PIA 20 ESE MKG 20 ENE PLN ...CONT... 15 NNE EFK 15 SW EWB
...CONT... 45 SSE JAX 40 N PIE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST TX...ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY...INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
AND MID ATLANTIC STATES...

BAND OF STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
STATES ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION.  THIS AXIS
WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVE TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

...OH/TN VALLEYS INTO MID ATLANTIC...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN IND/WESTERN KY.  THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY
TO RE-ORGANIZE TODAY AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH A MOIST/VERY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  OTHER STORMS MAY INTENSIFY FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
PARTS OF OH/WESTERN PA IN REGION OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. 
AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG ARE FORECAST...ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS.  ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO MCS WITH THE THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
AND SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO PA/VA/NC BEFORE WEAKENING.

...NORTH TX/OK/AR...
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD CIRRUS PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDING ACROSS WEST TX AND MUCH OF
OK.  SURFACE HEATING WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BENEATH THESE
CLOUDS...BUT IT APPEARS A SOUTHERN EDGE TO THICKER CIRRUS WILL
DEVELOP FROM CDS-OKC-FSM.  SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...A VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD EXIST WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500
J/KG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THIS ZONE BY
LATE AFTERNOON...SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK INTO
WESTERN AR DURING THE EVENING. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE.

...WEST TX...
SURFACE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NEAR CDS TO EAST OF MAF
THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THIS
AREA...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S.  DEEP MIXING
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. 
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A RISK OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...CO...
LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING THIS MORNING OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
FAR WESTERN PLAINS OF EASTERN CO.  STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES
FOR SEVERE STORMS IF CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP.  PRESENT INDICATIONS
ARE THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO
FORM IN THIS REGION TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.

..HART/BANACOS.. 05/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.