[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 251306
SWODY1
SPC AC 251303

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0803 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E
ILM 15 SSE CLT 25 W DYR 40 ENE MLC 50 SW SPS 55 ESE LBB 25 ENE PVW
50 SSE DDC FLV 25 N UIN 35 NNE LAF 25 NE PSB 25 SSW ABE 25 ESE ILG
20 SSW ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 20 NW INK 55
S CVS 55 ENE LVS 45 NE DRO 20 E SGU 35 NNE BFL MER 30 NE SAC 45 SW
TWF 30 NNW SUN 50 WNW 27U 20 NE MSO 35 N HVR ...CONT... 55 N MOT 15
ESE P24 15 W DIK 40 NNE 4BQ 20 SE 4BQ 35 SSW PHP 25 SW ANW 20 SW EAR
45 W BIE 35 W OTM 35 ESE MLI CGX 35 ENE MTW 20 WSW ANJ ...CONT... 20
WNW EFK 15 WSW EWB ...CONT... 50 SSE JAX 40 SSW VLD CSG 20 W ANB TUP
PBF 15 SE PRX 15 ESE MWL 35 NNW JCT DRT.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ENEWD
ACROSS THE MID MS/OH/TN VALLEYS TO MID ATLANTIC REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
BAND OF 50-60 KT WSWLY MID-LEVEL WILL EXTEND FROM THE SWRN STATES
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TO MID MS/OH VALLEYS AND SRN GREAT LAKES THIS
PERIOD...AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH REMAINS GENERALLY
ORIENTED FROM OFF THE CA COAST TO THE NRN PLAINS/CENTRAL CANADA. 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NRN MN AT 11Z AND WEAKER FEATURE/ MCV ACROSS
SRN LOWER MI WILL BOTH MOVE NEWD TO ERN CANADA THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN SRN STREAM FLOW WILL AID IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO EXTEND
FROM WRN TX ENEWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK TO SRN MO AND CENTRAL IND/OH BY
00Z.  EXACT LOCATION OF THIS COLD FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF ERN KS/NERN
OK TO IL/IND HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY OVERNIGHT MCS WITH ONE OR TWO
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LYING ACROSS THIS SAME REGION.  MEANWHILE...A
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR SRN OH EWD ACROSS NRN VA AREA SHOULD
MOVE NWD INTO SRN PA AND DE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

...SRN PLAINS ENEWD TO MID MS/OH VALLEYS...
AIR MASS ALONG/S OF COLD FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM OVERNIGHT MIDWEST MCS WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST TODAY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  EXTENSIVE BAND OF MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITHIN THE SRN STREAM AND LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS
THIS REGION TODAY AND INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER...MOIST AIR
MASS COMBINED WITH POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES
SHOULD ALLOW MODERATE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ALONG/S OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE OH VALLEY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-40 KT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER VALUES OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL
SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/ SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND MORE CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM NRN OK/SRN KS EWD ACROSS THE
OZARKS TO WRN KY WITHIN A ZONE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA.  HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE ELEVATED STORMS.

...PA/DE SWD TO NC...
A SIMILAR AIR MASS WILL EXTEND FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THIS AFTERNOON.  WARM SECTOR/
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RETREAT NWD ACROSS SRN PA IN ADVANCE OF EWD
MOVING MCV AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  HOWEVER...NWD RETURN OF WARM FRONT
INTO NJ WILL BE HINDERED TODAY BY LOW-LEVEL ELY FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC...MAINTAINING A MORE STABLE AIR MASS OVER NJ WITH SURFACE
BOUNDARY ONLY MOVING INTO DE.

STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR /SFC-6 KM FROM 35-40 KT/ IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PA/NRN VA TO DELMARVA SUPPORTING A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE
RETREATING WARM FRONT AND MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  HAIL/STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.  A WEAK SURFACE WAVE INDICATED BY
THE 06Z ETA TO MOVE ACROSS MD/DE THIS AFTERNOON MAY INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THAT AREA.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS SRN VA INTO NC...STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AND ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
 WEAKER DEEP LAYER SHEAR /20-30 KT/ ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGESTS STORMS
WILL BE MULTI-CELLULAR WITHIN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS...WITH HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

..PETERS/GUYER.. 05/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.