[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 250610
SWODY1
SPC AC 250606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2004

VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW
ART 20 NNE UCA ALB 10 S GON ...CONT... 20 N HSE 30 E EWN 10 ESE FAY
30 ENE SPA 25 SW TYS 35 ENE JBR 10 SW MLC 10 NE SPS 35 S CDS 45 NE
PVW 35 E AMA 45 WNW GAG 15 NNE FLV 30 WNW BEH 70 NNE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE JAX 35 SSE VLD
10 S MGR 15 SSW CSG 20 W ANB TUP PBF 15 SE PRX 25 SE MWL 25 NNW JCT
DRT ...CONT... 50 W MRF 25 SSE HOB 30 NE HOB 30 SE CVS 55 SSE RTN 40
ENE DRO 10 SSE U17 45 NNE BFL 40 S FAT 35 W FAT 20 SE SCK 40 WNW TVL
30 NNW LOL 45 WSW TWF 35 SW SUN 65 SW 27U 40 NW DLN 40 ESE HLN 35
WNW 3HT 55 ENE BIL 20 S 4BQ 35 SE RAP 25 NE MHN 35 WNW EAR HSI 10 E
LNK 15 WSW DSM 25 SSW LNR 40 E VOK 15 NW AUW 35 E DLH 25 NE ELO
...CONT... 30 N ART 30 S SLK 25 WNW EEN EWB.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY...TN VALLEY...MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND STATES...

...MID-ATLANTIC STATES/ERN GREAT LAKES/OH AND TN VALLEYS...

A SEVERE LARGE-SCALE BOW ECHO WILL CONTINUE EWD TONIGHT REACHING THE
CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS BY DAYBREAK. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S F
ALL THE WAY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE MCS
TO CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN MTNS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS BY
MIDDAY. IF THE BOW CAN HOLD TOGETHER ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SRN
PA...WV...VA...MD...SRN NJ AND DE AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON.

FARTHER WEST...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...OH AND TN VALLEYS...THE
MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED
FROM WEST TO EAST FROM CNTRL IL TO SRN OH AND THIS WILL BE A FOCUS
FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT. SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES ARE PRESENT IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. AS THESE FEATURES DRIFT EWD
ACROSS THE REGION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIKELY BUT
EXACTLY WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT AND INSTABILITY WILL BE BY
AFTERNOON IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. LAPSE RATES ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
PARTICULARLY STEEP AND MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WHICH MAY
LIMIT THE LARGE HAIL THREAT. WIND DAMAGE LOOKS TO BE THE MORE LIKELY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WIND PROFILES WILL BE
MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 40
KT AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REACH 8.0 C/KM DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR AS THE LOW-LEVEL
JET INCREASES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DROPS
ACROSS THE REGION.

...SRN PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY...

AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SWD ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP IN PLACE AND THIS
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL
AFTER DARK. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT...INCREASING
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MOST OF THE CAPE ABOVE 700
MB SUGGESTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR OK CITY SHOW SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
AND THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR A HAIL MAINLY ACROSS NRN OK...SERN KS AND SRN MO.

..BROYLES/GUYER.. 05/25/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.