[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 232003
SWODY1
SPC AC 231959

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
DTW 10 SSE FWA 40 WSW SPI 20 W UIN 30 NNW BRL 30 NNE CID MSN 45 SSW
MBL 65 N MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE
DGW 30 N WRL 45 ENE COD 55 WNW SHR 50 ENE BIL MLS 60 WSW DIK PHP 35
ENE CDR 50 NNE DGW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
PBG BTV RUT BAF BDR 10 SE TTN LBE UNI OWB 15 WSW PAH 15 WNW POF 20 S
JLN 20 NNW JLN 30 NE SZL 35 ESE OTM 40 E MCW 40 W AUW 40 SSE IMT 10
NNE APN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW
AND ROA 35 SW RIC 20 NW OAJ 45 NNW CHS 30 NNW AGS 35 NNW AND.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE JAX 30 E GNV 20
SSW GNV 40 SSE VLD 40 NW AYS 35 S AHN 30 ESE RMG 50 WSW CSV 25 SW
BNA 15 ENE MKL 35 SW DYR 50 WSW JBR 55 NW LIT 40 E PGO 30 NE PRX 30
SSE FTW 40 SSW BWD 10 SE SJT 25 W SJT 30 ENE BGS FSI 55 WSW TUL 15
NE BVO 25 NNE CNU SPW MSP 30 WNW IWD 60 N ANJ ...CONT... 40 N BML 20
SW BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 50 NE GEG
30 NE HLN 25 NE LWT OLF 40 WNW P24 40 E BIS 25 SE MHE 35 ESE AIA CYS
45 NNW CAG 35 WNW PUC 25 W BAM 75 ESE 4LW 35 NNW LMT 20 W EUG 10 NE
AST 25 ENE CLM 10 N BLI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ACROSS ECNTRL IA...EXTREME SERN WI...NRN/CNTRL IL...NRN
IND...EXTREME NWRN OH AND CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS THROUGH THE
UPPER MS VLY AND EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY TO NY AND PA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SERN
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...MID/UPPER MS VLY INTO CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...
STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS SHIFTING EWD ACROSS IA AND MN
AND WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY ACROSS WI AND NRN/CNTRL IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.  DRY SLOT WRAPPING NEWD AHEAD OF THE LOW HAS ALLOWED
SUFFICIENT HEATING TO DESTABILIZE AREAS FROM ERN IA AND NWRN IL
WHERE MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXIST. TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH BY 21Z ACROSS ERN IA...THEN MOVE ENEWD ACROSS
CNTRL/SRN WI AND NRN/CNTRL IL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. 
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. RISK OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO ALSO EXISTS PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NRN/CNTRL IL WHERE THE 0-1KM SHEAR SAMPLED BY VWPS EXHIBIT
LOOPED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITHIN LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT.

ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP EWD INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI ALONG WARM
FRONT...PERHAPS VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS AIR MASS TRIES TO
RECOVER FROM MORNING TSTMS. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
TORNADOES ARE LIKELY. 18Z DTX SOUNDINGS SHOWED VERY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS AND 225 M2/S2 STORM RELATIVE HELICITY.  LATER THIS
EVENING...ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS UPSTREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...SOME WHICH MAY BE GREATER THAN 65 KTS.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH CNTRL MO HAS BEEN
EFFECTIVE IN FORCING TSTMS.  CINH IS MUCH STRONGER FARTHER SW  AND
TSTMS WILL BE FIGHTING A MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  HOWEVER... A
STRONGER STORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THOUGH THE 0-1KM SHEAR IS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS FARTHER
NORTHEAST...A RISK OF AN ISOLD TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
CNTRL/ECNTRL MO.  IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR ON HOW FAR EAST THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST...GIVEN LEFT-OVER INFLUENCES OF RECENT MCS
THAT MOVED ACROSS SRN IL.

...MIDWEST TO UPPER OH VLY...
LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS HAS BEEN MOVING RAPIDLY ENEWD THROUGH IND THIS
AFTERNOON.  DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500
J/KG.  18Z KILN SOUNDING SHOWED A WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700-500 MB AND
THIS MAY BE INHIBITING STRONG UPSCALE GROWTH.  BUT...GIVEN THAT THE
MCS IS MOVING TOWARD SRN PERIPHERY OF 40 KT WLY FLOW...ACTIVITY MAY
SURVIVE DOWNSTREAM INTO OH AND PERHAPS NWRN PA LATER THIS EVENING. 
MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NY/NRN PA...
TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE ERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE AND
ALONG OLD BOUNDARY OVER NERN PA.  STRONGEST INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
FEED NEWD FROM PA INTO BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED E-W ACROSS CNTRL NY.
 AS DURING THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING WITH ISOLD SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO COULD ALSO
OCCUR...MAINLY ACROSS CNTRL/SRN NY.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
TSTMS ARE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT TSTMS.  A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND THE RISK OF A TORNADO OR TWO.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
CINH REMAINS QUITE STRONG ALONG DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION
ACROSS SCNTRL-ERN OK.  GIVEN LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE...IT IS NOT
LIKELY THAT THE CAP WILL BE OVERCOME THIS AFTERNOON.  BUT...IF AN
ISOLD TSTM COULD MANAGE TO INITIATE...IT COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL.

...SERN STATES...
NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG
SEABREEZE/BOUNDARIES.  AIR MASS IS HOT AND MOIST...BUT THE FLOW IS
RATHER WEAK.  THUS...MULTICELL PULSE SEVERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PREDOMINATE MODE AND AS THE CELLS BEGIN TO COLLAPSE...DAMAGING
WINDS/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..RACY.. 05/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.