[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 240105
SWODY1
SPC AC 240102

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

VALID 240100Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE
DTW 40 ENE FWA 35 ENE LAF 40 N DNV 10 ESE MMO 15 E RFD 25 NE JVL 30
NNW MKE 40 SE MTW 65 N MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE
AGS 35 SE AND GSP 10 ENE HKY 20 N GSO 35 N RDU 15 W RWI 25 E FAY 40
SE CAE 30 NE AGS.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W
ART 25 ENE ALB 25 NE EWB ...CONT... BID 25 N EWR 10 SE PSB 10 ESE
ZZV 30 W SDF 25 SW POF 20 N MLC 55 ESE OKC 25 ESE OKC 35 NE OKC 15
NE BVO 30 NE SZL 40 NE IRK 20 WSW DBQ 25 SE VOK 55 NW MBL 20 E APN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W
CDR 60 NE DGW 30 W 4BQ 20 S MLS 40 S GDV 45 WSW DIK 45 SSW DIK 40 NW
PHP 45 SW PHP 30 NE CDR 20 W CDR.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW BML 20 SW BHB
...CONT... 20 SE JAX 30 WNW JAX 20 SSW AYS 50 NNW AYS 35 S AHN 45 NE
RMG 35 SE BNA 30 NE MKL 35 N HOT 20 ESE DUA 20 ESE ABI 35 SW ABI 55
ENE BGS 65 ESE LBB 30 WSW LTS 40 ENE MKC 25 W OTM 40 E MCW 30 NE EAU
40 S CMX 50 NNW ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 15 SW FCA
45 NNW GTF 60 SE HVR 20 NNW OLF 30 E ISN 35 ESE BIS 30 W HON 50 ENE
ANW 30 WNW BBW 40 ESE SNY 50 E VEL 30 WNW DPG 35 NNW WMC 60 N LMT 30
ENE EUG 30 S OLM 10 NNE BLI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NE IL...SW
WI...SRN LOWER MI...NRN IND AND NW OH...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES...OH VALLEY...MID MS VALLEY...SRN PLAINS AND NEW ENGLAND
STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...SRN GREAT LAKES/MID MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS...

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A SFC LOW WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD FROM SRN WI ACROSS WRN IL INTO MO AND OK. SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SFC ANALYSIS
SHOWS DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND 70 F AND THIS IS RESULTING
IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR WITH MLCAPE RANGING FROM 3000 J/KG ACROSS
OK...MO AND IL TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. THIS
MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL FUEL THE STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING.

THE 00Z SOUNDING AT ILX SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL VEERING IN THE LOW-LEVELS
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. THIS SOUNDING SHOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AIRMASS EAST OF
THE COLD FRONT AND ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. AS A RESULT...THE
SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE IN NRN IL...SRN WI AND SRN LOWER MI
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SUPERCELLS. THE WIND DAMAGE
THREAT SHOULD INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY IF AN MCS CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NRN IL AND NRN IND LATER
THIS EVENING AND THIS WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT.

FARTHER SW ACROSS MO AND OK...LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAKER AND THE
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN AREAS FARTHER NW. THE
STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED SUPERCELL
THREAT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. DUE TO
THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL FORCING...THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME AFTER
DARK BUT A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH
MIDNIGHT CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE.

...ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES...

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS SRN NY. SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR LAKE ERIE AND THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EWD ACROSS NY THIS EVENING. THE BUFFALO 00Z
SOUNDING SHOWS SOME LOW-LEVEL VEERING WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ABOVE 1.5 IN AND LOW LCL HEIGHTS WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AND POSSIBLY
TORNADOES. THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS
THE LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN SRN LOWER MI MOVES EWD INTO WRN NY
LATER TONIGHT.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE OCCURRING IN SWRN SD AND THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE 00Z RAPID CITY
SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE WITH
VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS A RESULT...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES....COLD AIR ALOFT AND
LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..BROYLES.. 05/24/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.