[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231637
SWODY1
SPC AC 231634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

VALID 231630Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
DTW FWA DEC UIN 40 ENE OTM DBQ MSN 35 NNW MKG 65 N MTC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DGW 25
WSW GCC SHR 55 WNW SHR 50 E BIL MLS REJ PHP 10 S AIA DGW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
PBG BTV RUT BAF BDR 10 SE TTN LBE UNI OWB PAH SGF SZL P35 ALO LSE
AUW 10 NNE APN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AVL
LYH 35 SW RIC 10 NW RWI 45 SE CLT GSP AVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE JAX 30 E GNV 20
SSW GNV 40 SSE VLD 40 NW AYS 35 S AHN 30 ESE RMG 50 WSW CSV 25 SW
BNA 15 ENE MKL 35 SW DYR 50 WSW JBR 55 NW LIT 40 E PGO 30 NE PRX 30
SSE FTW 40 SSW BWD 10 SE SJT 25 W SJT 30 ENE BGS 20 E FSI 55 WSW TUL
15 NE BVO 25 NNE CNU SPW MSP 30 WNW IWD 60 N ANJ ...CONT... 40 N BML
20 SW BHB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE 63S 50 NE GEG
30 NE HLN 25 NE LWT OLF 40 WNW P24 40 E BIS 25 SE MHE 35 ESE AIA CYS
45 NNW CAG 35 WNW PUC 25 W BAM 75 ESE 4LW 35 NNW LMT 20 W EUG 10 NE
AST 25 ENE CLM 10 N BLI.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO
WESTERN NY/PA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE
CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...

ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED TODAY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION.  THE
EVOLUTION OF STORMS IS MUCH MORE COMPLICATED AND LESS CONFIDENT THAN
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.  HOWEVER...POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE STORMS.

...MI/IND/OH/PA...
CURRENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER IND/IL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI AND THE UPPER
OH VALLEY.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS QUITE MOIST/UNSTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES
LIKELY 2500-3500 J/KG. SOUTHWESTERLY 500MB WINDS OF 30-40
KNOTS...COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG UVVS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WI/NORTHERN IL SHOULD AID IN
THE MAINTENANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WELL INTO THE EVENING...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREATS.  ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THAT FORM NEAR OR INTERACT WITH WARM FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS LOWER MI.  IF ACTIVITY ORGANIZES SUFFICIENTLY...
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR AN INTENSE WIND EVENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN
OH/LOWER MI.

...IA/IL...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MAIN LOW OVER CENTRAL IA...WITH COLD
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN MO INTO OK.  A REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS CENTRAL MO.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR NORTH OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST MO AND WEST CENTRAL IL.  THIS IS
ALSO WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOST LIKELY TO RECOVER BEHIND EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000-4000 J/KG. 
COMBINATION OF A RATHER WEAK CAP AND UVVS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE NOW OVER KS SHOULD INITIATE STORMS BY MID
AFTERNOON.  STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH 0-1KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KNOTS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.  IF SURFACE WINDS CAN REMAIN
SLIGHTLY BACKED IN THIS AREA NORTH OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...IT
APPEARS THERE IS A RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.  VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF IND BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE
EVENING.

...VA/CAROLINAS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO FORM OVER THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC AND SOUTHWEST VA.  AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE
STORMS OVER SOUTHERN VA AND CENTRAL NC IS QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES LIKELY TO EXCEED
4000 J/KG.  WINDS ALOFT ARE QUITE WEAK...SUGGESTING WEAKLY ORGANIZED
MULTICELL STORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL.  SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS VA/MD MAY RESULT IN STRONGER DOWNSLOPE
EFFECTS...POSSIBLY LESSENING THE CONVECTIVE THREAT DESPITE HIGH
INSTABILITY.

...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHEAST MT TO THE BLACK HILLS.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ID/NV ROTATES EASTWARD.  COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES POSE A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS.

...SWRN MO INTO NORTH TX...
SURFACE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST MO
INTO NORTH TX BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS AREA IS LIKELY
CAPPED...HOWEVER 12Z/15Z RUC SOLUTIONS BREAK OUT STORMS IN THIS
REGION.  WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN THE EVENT THAT
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE CAN BE REACHED AND AN ISOLATED CELL CAN BREAK
CAP.

..HART/JEWELL.. 05/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.