[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 231258
SWODY1
SPC AC 231255

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE
DTW FWA BMI PIA 20 WSW MLI DBQ LNR 35 SE OSC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW
CDR GCC SHR 55 WNW SHR 3HT LWT 45 SSW GGW 35 SSE SDY 45 NE Y22 MBG
9V9 55 ENE CDR 55 WNW CDR.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N
PBG BTV RUT BAF BDR 15 NNW EWR PSB PIT LUK EVV MDH VIH 45 S P35 DSM
MCW EAU RHI 30 NE PLN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW EFK 15 W BML 20
ESE PWM ...CONT... 45 NNW DAB 25 ENE CTY 20 SSW VLD 40 S MCN 20 SSE
RMG 10 N HSV 45 SE MKL 35 W MEM 25 W LIT 40 S PGO 25 SW PRX 10 ENE
DAL 25 ENE SEP 45 ENE ABI 65 N ABI 30 SSW LTS 45 WNW OKC 30 SE EMP
20 N TOP 30 ENE BIE 10 NNW OLU 20 E BUB 35 W IML 15 SW FCL 30 SW VEL
25 SSW ENV 85 E 4LW 40 WNW RDM 20 N PDX 25 NW SEA 35 SE BLI 65 WNW
4OM 10 E 63S 15 NE MSO 30 S GTF 50 NNE LWT 30 W GGW 25 NNE OLF 45 E
ISN 55 NE BIS 30 N ATY 45 ENE ATY 15 WNW STC 40 SE DLH 50 NW ANJ.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI...NRN
INDIANA...SRN LOWER MI...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IA TO NY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY DOWNSTREAM FROM MEAN WRN CONUS TROUGH.  UPPER LOW
PRESENTLY OVER ID WILL EJECT NEWD ACROSS MT BY END OF PERIOD...AS
SPEED MAX SHIFTS EWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES TO ITS S.  CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED/ENHANCED MIDLEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION -- NOW EVIDENT IN
MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA OVER SERN MN --
WILL DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE NEWD ACROSS LOWER MI.  PERTURBATION
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEB -- AND SHOULD
AMPLIFY INTO CLOSED LOW TODAY OVER UPPER MS VALLEY.  AS THIS
OCCURS...SFC CYCLONE WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER ERN IA/SRN WI...IN WAKE
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX REMNANTS NOW MOVING OVER ERN WI/LM/IL. 
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS IA/MO AND IL. 
QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NOW ANALYZED ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND
WRN NY MAY DRIFT NWD TODAY AS WARM FRONT.

...GREAT LAKES STATES...
SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER
IA/NRN MO REGION AND MOVE EWD...WITH TORNADOES...DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL ALL POSSIBLE.  A FEW STRONG TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WHILE
ACTIVITY IS STILL IN DISCRETE SUPERCELL MODE...BEFORE THREAT
TRANSITIONS TO ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND EVENT AS CONVECTION SHIFTS
EWD.

CLOUD/PRECIP AREA ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL MCS WILL TEMPORARILY
IMPEDE DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION TODAY OVER WI/IL BORDER REGION...AND
FOR MORE OF THE DAY OVER LOWER MI.  HOWEVER...EXPECT SUFFICIENT
HEATING/MOISTENING BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY -- AND AHEAD OF
FRONTAL/CONVECTIVE FORCING MOVING EWD FROM IA -- TO SUPPORT SEVERE
TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MDT CATEGORICAL RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW ANALYZED OVER NWRN IL AND NRN MO
SHOULD MOVE NWD TOWARD MO/IA BORDER THROUGH TODAY -- PERHAPS INTO
SRN IA...AS IT BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE.  LCL WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW N
OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING HEATING/MODIFICATION PROCESS...COMPARED TO
FARTHER S ACROSS OZARKS WHERE CAPPING WILL BE MUCH STRONGER AS WELL.
 PLUME OF ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ALOFT -- ATOP MID 60S TO LOW 70S
SFC DEW POINTS -- WILL COMBINE WITH HEATING TO YIELD 3500-5000
MLCAPE...AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND ACROSS REGION WHERE IA/IL/WI
COME TOGETHER. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR BOTH SUPERCELL AND
ORGANIZED BOW ECHO MODES...WITH 250-400 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH.  0-6 KM
SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT AND WITH PROXIMITY TO UPPER
TROUGH....REACHING 50-60 KT OVER NERN IA AND SRN/CENTRAL WI.

DAMAGING WIND EVENT FROM RESULTANT MCS MAY EXTEND EWD AS FAR AS
HUDSON VALLEY REGION...BEFORE MOVING ATOP LAYER OF COLD MARINE AIR
THAT WILL BE ISALLOBARICALLY FORCED WWD FROM ATLANTIC ACROSS MUCH OF
NEW ENGLAND.

..NRN HIGH PLAINS...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF LEE TROUGH -- COMBINED WITH AT LEAST
MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE SHEAR -- WILL SUPPORT
DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW BOW ECHOES
THIS AFTERNOON FROM SERN MT SEWD TOWARD NERN WY AND BLACK HILLS
REGION.  VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY BOTH WILL INCREASE WITH TIME
THROUGH AFTERNOON...AS NRN ROCKIES TROUGH APCHS AND AS BOUNDARY
LAYER DIABATICALLY DESTABILIZES.  EXPECT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND
0-6 KM SHEARS UP TO ABOUT 80 KT BASED ON MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS. 
STRONG MIDLEVEL WINDS -- I.E. 55-75 KT OVER SERN MT/NERN
WY..INDICATE SOME DAMAGING GUSTS POTENTIAL TO REACH SFC.

..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 05/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.