[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 230729
SWODY1
SPC AC 230726

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0226 AM CDT SUN MAY 23 2004

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
BMI 35 WNW PIA 15 WNW MLI 10 SSW DBQ 30 SSW LNR 15 NNW MSN 40 SSW
MTW 35 N MKG 45 E OSC 45 NE MTC 25 SSE DTW 20 NE FWA 30 NE LAF 30
NNW DNV 10 WNW BMI.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
PBG 30 SSE EFK 25 SSW PWM.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
VTN 55 SSW GCC 20 NW WRL 30 NNW COD 40 W BIL 40 ESE LWT 70 NW MLS 20
E GDV 45 NNE Y22 25 NE MBG 55 WNW HON 25 NNE 9V9 40 SW 9V9 40 WNW
VTN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE ISP 25 N ABE 35
SSW DUJ 45 SE DAY 40 NE OWB 15 W MDH 20 NW VIH 50 S P35 35 SW DSM 25
ENE FOD 25 NW RST 40 NE EAU 15 NNW IMT ANJ.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNW DAB 25 ENE CTY
20 SSW VLD 40 S MCN 20 SSE RMG 10 N HSV 45 SE MKL 35 W MEM 25 W LIT
40 S PGO 25 SW PRX 10 ENE DAL 25 ENE SEP 45 ENE ABI 65 N ABI 30 SSW
LTS 45 WNW OKC 30 SE EMP 20 N TOP 30 ENE BIE 10 NNW OLU 20 E BUB 35
W IML 15 SW FCL 30 SW VEL 25 SSW ENV 85 E 4LW 40 WNW RDM 20 N PDX 25
NW SEA 35 SE BLI 65 WNW 4OM 10 E 63S 15 NE MSO 30 S GTF 50 NNE LWT
30 W GGW 25 NNE OLF 45 E ISN 55 NE BIS 30 N ATY 45 ENE ATY 15 WNW
STC 40 SE DLH 50 NW ANJ ...CONT... 15 NW EFK 15 W BML 20 ESE PWM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN IL...ERN IA...SRN
WI...SRN LOWER MI AND NRN INDIANA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY...GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY...NRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND NE
ENGLAND STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SE MT...NRN WY...WRN
SD...CNTRL SD AND SW ND...

CORRECTED FOR SERN LOWER MI MDT RISK/PROBABILISTIC WIND MATCH AND TO
INCLUDE NERN CONUS 5% WIND/HAIL PROBABILITY LINES

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...UPPER MIDWEST AND SRN GREAT LAKES...

A VIGOROUS UPPER-TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE
QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S F COUPLED WITH STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN SUPERCELLS WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR
TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL.

AN MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
FROM ERN IA EXTENDING EWD INTO THE CHICAGO AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS LOWER MI
DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE
THREAT. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS
IA...RESULTING IN STRONG SFC HEATING BY LATE MORNING. IT APPEARS NEW
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. THE STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS ERN IA AND NRN IL WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
INITIATION. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT...DEEPENING
THE UPPER-TROUGH AND MOVING IT ACROSS NRN WI BY 00Z SUNDAY. WITH
ADEQUATE MOISTURE IN PLACE...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KT AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA SHOW IMPRESSIVE SPEED
SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS WITH LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 1000 METERS. AS THE
UPPER-TROUGH SLIDES EWD...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL GET GOING
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND THE SHEAR PROFILES COMBINED WITH THE
RELATIVELY LOW LCL HEIGHTS TO THE WEST AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL
ALSO POSSIBLE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES
ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AND THIS SHOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A LINEAR
STRUCTURE SOMETIME DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. IN
ADDITION...THE ETA AND GFS BOTH DEVELOP A LOW-LEVEL JET PUNCHING
INTO SRN LOWER MI BEHIND THE LINE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE AND VERY HIGH
WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE AS THE MCS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD REMAIN INTACT OVERNIGHT WITH THE LINE AS IT EVENTUALLY
MOVES EWD ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO WRN NY.


...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

AN UPPER-TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE NWRN US. A
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST ROTATE AROUND THE TROUGH INTO THE NRN PLAINS
TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE AROUND 50 F AND THIS COMBINED WITH
STRONG SFC HEATING WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS.
500 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM -18 TO -20 C AND THIS WILL
CREATE VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8.0 C/KM. AS A
RESULT...LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE
STORMS SHOULD BE TIED CLOSELY TO SFC HEATING AND THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK.

..BROYLES.. 05/23/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.