[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220109
SWODY1
SPC AC 220106

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0806 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N
YKN 10 NNW FSD 35 NE MCW 15 NNE JVL 15 NW SBN 45 SW SBN 25 NNW MLI
50 NNE DSM 35 E SUX 20 WNW SUX 10 N YKN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
ECG 45 NNW RWI 25 S ROA 20 SE BKW 55 WNW LUK 20 N DNV 25 E OTM FNB
MHK 10 W P28 35 NNW CDS 30 NNE AMA 35 N GCK 30 S IML 55 E CDR 35 SSW
PHP 15 NE RAP 25 NW REJ 60 N REJ 15 SW DIK 35 W BIS 10 SSE ABR 40 E
ATY CWA 40 ESE MBL 45 N MTC ...CONT... 20 NNE ERI 45 NW IPT 20 SSE
AVP 20 ENE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 35 N CNM 35
ESE TCC 35 SSE LAA 50 ESE AKO 15 SW SNY 45 S DGW 15 SE RWL 25 WNW
VEL 20 NE U24 55 ESE BIH 45 SE UKI 35 NW UKI 40 NE 4BK 45 E SLE 20
SE OLM 25 NE UIL ...CONT... 55 N ISN 45 ESE MOT 20 SSW JMS 55 WNW
AXN 20 NNE BRD 30 ENE CMX ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 30 E ISP ...CONT...
10 NE JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 25 SW MOB 45 SSW CBM 45 ESE MKL 20 N
5I3 10 SSE CMI 10 NNW IRK 10 W FLV 30 SSE MHK 50 WSW END 30 SE BGS
25 S P07.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN SD/NEB ACROSS NRN IA
INTO NRN IL AND NWRN IND...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SYNOPSIS...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER UNDERWAY ACROSS MANY REGIONS OF CONUS THIS
EVENING. PLEASE CONSULT GRAPHIC PROBABILITY OUTLOOKS FOR FURTHER
DETAILS WHICH AUGMENT THE SHORT DISCUSSIONS INCLUDED IN THIS
PRODUCT.

...CNTRL PLAINS TO UPPER MS VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES...
HIGH INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO FEED INTO STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SITUATED FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD ACROSS IA/NRN IL/NRN IND AND SWRN
OH. TWO DISTINCT AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE UNDERWAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THIS REGION...ONE FROM NRN IL ACROSS
LAKE MI AND INTO LOWER MI...THE OTHER OVER NCNTRL IA. MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN A WEST TO EAST AXIS ACROSS THE AREAS BEING
AFFECTED BY ONGOING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE MDT RISK
AREA...FROM EXTREME SERN SD/NERN NEB ACROSS NRN IA...AND INTO NRN IL
AND NWRN IND HIGHLIGHTS THE REGION WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORM COMPLEX ON THE WARM FRONT OVER IA
COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO ANOTHER FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/BOW ECHO
FROM THE MS RIVER ACROSS LOWER MI LATER TONIGHT. THIS WOULD BE THE
THIRD COMPLEX TO MOVE OVER THESE AREAS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IT
IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER RESIDUAL AIRMASS ACROSS SRN WI INTO LOWER MI
WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WIND HAZARD. LEADING
BOW COMPLEX NOW MOVING ACROSS LOWER MI COULD PRODUCE A FEW
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS BUT WILL ALSO MOVE TOWARD GREATER STABILITY IN
THE WAKE OF SYSTEM NOW MOVING INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION.

WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
FROM NCNTRL/NERN NEB/WRN SD SOUTH TO WRN KS AND THE TX PNHDL. STORMS
OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
CELLS OVER NOW DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER NERN NEB COULD ALSO BE
TORNADIC. STORMS FARTHER SOUTH WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING GIVEN WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS. ETA IS FCSTG
THAT NEB/SD ACTIVITY WILL CONGEAL INTO YET ANOTHER LARGE AND SEVERE
MCS LATER TONIGHT AND TRACK EWD ACROSS IA...POSSIBLY SRN MN...AND BE
NEAR THE MS RIVER BY SATURDAY MORNING.

...OH VALLEY TO DELMARVA...
MATURE BOW COMPLEX WITH A LARGE ARC OF CONVECTION FROM SRN
PA...ACROSS THE WV PNHDL...WWD TO SRN OH CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SEWD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC. AIRMASS ACROSS PA AND MD HAS RECENTLY
BECOME MORE STABLE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING INHIBITION WAS NOTED ON IAD RAOB BUT
LEADING EDGE OF BOW COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS WV PNHDL INTO NRN VA COULD
STILL PRODUCE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
FARTHER WEST...TRAILING PORTION OF THE BOW WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS SRN
WV. UPSTREAM ILN RAOB SUGGESTS VERY HIGH INSTABILITY MAY CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE SRN PART OF THE BOW AND SUPPORT A FEW MORE DAMAGING
WIND REPORTS ACROSS THIS AREA.

..CARBIN.. 05/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.