[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 212005
SWODY1
SPC AC 212002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE
FSD 30 WNW FRM RST JVL CGX 35 ESE MMO MLI 50 NNE DSM 45 ESE SUX 25
NNW SUX 20 ESE FSD.

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
AOO 25 SSE MGW 25 WNW ZZV 20 NW MFD 40 N CLE 30 NE JHW 35 ESE BFD 35
SSW AOO.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N
ROC 20 NW ITH 20 SSE AVP 20 ENE NEL ...CONT... 35 N HSE RWI 20 N GSO
20 SW SSU UNI LAF OTM FNB MHK 10 W P28 30 NW CDS 10 SSE MAF 65 SW
P07 45 WSW MRF 30 ENE CNM 55 ENE CVS EHA GLD 15 ENE SNY BFF 25 WSW
CPR 15 SSE WRL 60 E BIL 55 SSE GDV Y22 25 E ATY MSP CWA TVC 20 NW
OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 35 N CNM 35
ESE TCC 35 SSE LAA 50 ESE AKO 15 SW SNY 45 S DGW 15 SE RWL 25 WNW
VEL 20 NE U24 55 ESE BIH 45 SE UKI 35 NW UKI 40 NE 4BK 45 E SLE 20
SE OLM 25 NE UIL ...CONT... 55 N ISN 45 ESE MOT 20 SSW JMS 55 WNW
AXN 20 NNE BRD 30 ENE CMX ...CONT... 10 NW EFK 30 E ISP ...CONT...
10 NE JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 30 SE 7R4 40 NW JAN 30 ESE MEM 20 NE
MTO 25 SE UIN 35 ESE P35 10 NNW MKC ICT 35 NE CSM 25 WSW SJT 10 NW
DRT.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN IA/EXTREME SRN
MN/EXTREME SWRN WI/NRN IL...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NERN/ECNTRL OH/EXTREME
SWRN NY/WRN PA AND EXTREME NRN WV INCLUDING THE NRN PNHDL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES...UPPER OH VLY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC
STATES...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...
THERMAL RIDGE HAS NOSED UP THE ERN EDGE OF THE APPALACHIANS AND
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS.  TSTMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHERE MLCAPES ARE 2000-3000 J/KG.  THOUGH THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK...PLUME OF MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE
STREAMED EWD THE LAST 24 HOURS INTO THE REGION AND LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THESE TSTMS.  ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN
WITH DIURNAL COOLING.  HOWEVER...UPSTREAM ACTIVITY MAY BRUSH THE
MASON-DIXON LINE AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND HAIL.

...LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VLY...
MATURE FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE ESEWD TOWARD
THE ERN END OF LAKE ERIE AND NERN OH.  AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM HAS BEEN
ABLE TO RECOVER IN WAKE OF EARLIER MCS AND THIS COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE
INTO PARTS OF SWRN NY...WRN/CNTRL PA AND ECNTRL/NERN OH OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.  THERE HAS BEEN A HISTORY OF HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT
WIND DAMAGE UPSTREAM ACROSS IND AND SRN LOWER MI AND WINDS OF 65 KTS
OR GREATER COULD OCCUR.  THE STORMS MIGHT WEAKEN EAST OF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...BUT CHARACTER OF THESE WELL-DEFINED MCS/S ARE
OFTEN MAINTAINED LONGER THAN ANTICIPATED.

GIVEN MEAN WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW OVERNIGHT...ANY TSTM COMPLEX THAT
DEVELOPS UPSTREAM MAY TRAVEL INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT WITH
RISKS OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES REGION...

SOUTH OF FRONT:

VSBL SATELLITE/MESOANALYSIS SHOW OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EMANATED FROM
THE MCS NOW MOVING INTO THE UPPER OH VLY WAS RETREATING NWD THROUGH
NRN IL AND NERN IA.  HOT PROD HAS DEVELOPED NWD THROUGH THE LOWER MO
VLY AND PRESSURE FALLS HAVE INCREASED RAPIDLY ACROSS NCNTRL/NERN IA.
 TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
ARE ROOTING INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY NEAR 70F DEW
POINTS.  THESE TSTMS ARE APT TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND DEVELOP EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO NRN IL AND PERHAPS
EXTREME SRN WI LATER THIS EVENING.

PROFILER TIME SERIES FROM SLATER...LOCATED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...SUGGESTS THAT THE 0-1KM SHEAR HAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES. GIVEN LOW LCLS...MAGNITUDE OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY...TORNADO THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND SPREAD
DOWNSTREAM INTO NRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE COULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO IN A SMALL AREA OF ECNTRL IA AND EXTREME NWRN
IL.  ADDITIONALLY...VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS COULD OCCUR.

ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP INTO AN MCS LATER THIS EVENING AND
MOVE TOWARD THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

NORTH OF FRONT:

MIDLEVEL IMPULSE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS SRN MN AND IS SUPPORTING
EVOLUTION OF TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN WI.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS MORE ELEVATED THAN CELLS FARTHER SOUTH.  THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD TOWARD CNTRL/NRN LOWER MI THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH A CONTINUED HAIL THREAT.

...CNTRL PLAINS WWD TO THE HIGH PLAINS...
WEST AND NORTH OF THE MO RVR...FLOW HAS TURNED UPSLOPE...ADVECTING 
50S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS WWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  TSTMS
HAVE FORMED OVER THE WY HIGH TERRAIN ALREADY TODAY AND THESE WILL
MIGRATE ENEWD ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS EVENING.  18Z RAPID CITY
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT CINH IS WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND TSTMS SHOULD HAVE
NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING ON THE PLAINS EWD INTO PARTS OF SD AND SWD
INTO PARTS OF WRN NEB ALONG THE DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH/FRONT.

VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS AND DAMAGING WINDS
AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. THERE COULD ALSO ISOLD
TORNADOES...THOUGH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT WEAK.  HIGHER
TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL EXIST ON THE PLAINS OF SRN SD AND NRN NEB
WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOIST AXIS EXISTS AND WHERE THE LOW LEVEL
SELY FLOW IS THE STRONGEST.

THIS ACTIVITY...AND OTHER TSTMS...WILL DEVELOP/MOVE EWD TOWARD THE
MO VLY OVERNIGHT WITH ATTENDANT HAIL/WIND SEVERE THREATS.

..RACY.. 05/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.