[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 220615
SWODY1
SPC AC 220612

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0112 AM CDT SAT MAY 22 2004

VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW
MCK 55 ENE SNY 30 ESE AIA 45 WNW VTN 30 SE 9V9 25 ESE FSD 35 WSW RST
45 SW LSE 20 ESE ALO 30 S DSM 35 N FNB 40 SSE HSI 10 WNW MCK.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW
ART 35 SSE SLK 15 S LEB 15 W CON 15 NNW ORH 35 NNE EWR 10 W TTN 30 W
ILG 30 WSW DCA 35 ENE LYH 20 SSW PSK 30 SE 5I3 20 W CRW 20 SE ZZV 35
ESE MFD 15 SW TOL 35 SE SBN 30 SSE MMO 25 NNW UIN 30 N SZL 35 SSE
OJC END 40 N CSM 30 W RSL 25 WNW HLC 35 W GLD 10 NNE LIC 30 ENE DEN
20 NNE CPR 20 NNW COD 30 WSW BIL 60 ESE LWT 45 W GDV 35 NNE PHP 20
NNW 9V9 35 NW OTG 30 N RST 45 W AUW 45 NW MBL 15 S OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE DAB 60 N PIE
...CONT... 45 SE GPT LUL CBM 20 W MSL 50 SW BNA 25 NW BNA 30 S OWB
50 NNE PAH 45 N SGF 10 SW BVO 35 NNW ADM 10 NNE MWL 30 S BWD 45 WSW
JCT 35 NW DRT ...CONT... 55 SSW MRF 20 ENE MRF 15 W MAF 40 WSW CDS
40 SSE DDC 40 W RSL 30 W HLC 25 ESE LIC 50 W EGE 10 E PUC 20 SSE U24
25 E ELY 55 SE BAM 10 E WMC 4LW 40 SE EUG 20 NNW ONP.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CTB 20 WSW HVR
40 S OLF 50 NE MBG 55 NE ABR 20 WNW BRD 10 WSW IWD 25 SE ANJ
...CONT... 50 WNW 3B1 10 NE EPM.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS
INCLUDING MUCH OF NEB...WRN IA...AND EXTREME SERN SD AND SRN MN...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS EAST
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/MIDWEST...SRN GREAT
LAKES...AND PARTS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER BUSY SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS ON TAP ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE
CNTRL U.S...SECTIONS OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST...THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND PERHAPS EVEN PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NRN
ROCKIES. FOCUS FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE
EXTENSIVE FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED FROM THE PLAINS TO THE SRN GREAT
LAKES TO PA. BELT OF WSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW OFF THE HEATED HIGH PLAINS
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WHILE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROVIDES RICH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE FRONT.

SERIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN COMMON ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS.
AS THESE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS DEVELOPED EWD...A WEAKER CAP...AND
STEERING FLOW ON THE NERN PERIPHERY OF LOWER MS VALLEY ANTICYCLONE
HAS RESULTED IN A MORE SEWD PROPAGATION WITH  ORGANIZED CONVECTION
MOVING FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC. THE FRONT IS
FCST TO REMAIN ESSENTIALLY QUASISTATIONARY FROM ERN IA TO NRN IL/IND
THROUGH EARLY TODAY AS ANOTHER SEVERE MCS/BOW ECHO COMPLEX AND
RESULTANT FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPS EWD INTO LOWER MI THROUGH AFTERNOON.
THIS IMPULSE MAY CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRONTAL WAVE...A MUCH DEEPER
CYCLONE IS FCST TO DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS STARTING
LATER TODAY AS PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST IS EJECTED
ENEWD BY UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE/WIND MAX DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ENEWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM
NERN CO TO WRN IA THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ETA
APPEAR TO BE SUFFERING FROM FEEDBACK AND OVERLY INTENSIFY OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF ANTICIPATED DYNAMIC FORCING COUPLED WITH
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WOULD SUGGEST A FAIRLY HIGH
PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LATER TODAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE PLAINS STATES.

...CNTRL PLAINS...
EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE TO 4000 J/KG/ IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON FROM KS ACROSS MOST OF ERN NEB AND WRN IA.
WHILE AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
OVER MOST OF KS...COMBINATION OF FORCING AND HEATING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...WILL RESULT IN
RAPID TO EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NEB AND PERHAPS NWRN KS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAT ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS AND LOW
LEVEL SRH ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT STRONG AND PERSISTENT
STORM ROTATION FOR CELLS MOVING EAST. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE
MAXIMIZED INVOF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW NEAR DRYLINE/WARM FRONT
INTERSECTION EXPECTED OVER SCNTRL NEB BY LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...FCST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN SHOW HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL. NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES
SHOULD TRACK ENEWD ACROSS THE MO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING
COINCIDENT WITH DEEPENING CYCLONE.

EVENTUALLY...STORM MERGERS AND CONTINUED UPSCALE ORGANIZATION AIDED
BY DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE SEVERE MCS TRACKING ENEWD
ACROSS IA AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

...HIGH PLAINS-SERN MT/ERN WY/NEB PNHDL...
UPSLOPE FLOW...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT MID
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF EJECTING TROUGH WILL ALL AID TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS FROM WRN NEB NWWD TO MT. A
NUMBER OF THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SUPERCELLS AND COULD PRODUCE
HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES GIVEN FAVORABLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE UPDRAFT LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.

...EAST...
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GIVEN VERY POOR
PERFORMANCE OF MODELS WITH RESPECT TO UPSCALE MCS DEVELOPMENT AND
PERSISTENCE. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT A PLUME OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NY FROM THE MIDWEST/ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUE TO FEED INTO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
TRAVELING WITHIN BELT OF FASTER MID LEVEL FLOW. IF THIS OCCURS...THE
BEST COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD EXIST FROM NRN PA ACROSS ERN NY AND INTO WRN PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND. SERIES OF SMALL SCALE BOWS/LINE SEGMENTS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER SOUTH...WEAKER SHEAR/FLOW BUT SUBSTANTIAL INSTABILITY AND
LITTLE INHIBITION WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS TSTMS WITH MICROBURST AND
SOME HAIL POTENTIAL. ACTIVITY MAY BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS...AS WELL AS WITHIN THERMAL/LEE TROUGH AND NEAR SEA
BREEZES THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...SRN GREAT LAKES...
SCENARIO ACROSS THIS AREA IS SIMILAR TO FARTHER EAST ONLY MCS
ACTIVITY WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME
EMANATING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS. NUMEROUS CLUSTERS/LINES OF STORMS
COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL FROM SRN WI ACROSS LOWER MI
DURING THE PERIOD.

...INTERIOR NORTHWEST...
FARTHER WEST...STRONG SYSTEM DROPPING INTO WA/ORE AREA WILL DRIVE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST ACROSS ID. DYNAMIC FORCING WITHIN EXIT REGION
OF MID/UPPER JET MAX ACTING ON MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS STORMS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A SLGT
RISK MIGHT BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN ID IF GREATER
INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

..CARBIN.. 05/22/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.