[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 211635
SWODY1
SPC AC 211632

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT FRI MAY 21 2004

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
MHE BKX RST JVL CGX 35 ESE MMO MLI 50 NNE DSM 30 WNW OFK 35 SSE 9V9
35 NE MHE.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N
HSE RWI DAN SSU UNI LAF OTM FNB MHK 10 W P28 30 NW CDS 30 SW MAF 35
E MRF 30 NW MRF 35 SW HOB 55 ENE CVS EHA GLD 15 ENE SNY BFF DGW GCC
4BQ 55 SSE GDV Y22 ATY MSP CWA TVC OSC ...CONT... BUF ELM CXY 25 ENE
SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE 7R4 40 NW JAN
30 ESE MEM 20 NE MTO 25 N SPI 30 ESE IRK OJC ICT 35 NE CSM 25 WSW
SJT 10 NW DRT ...CONT... 70 WNW MRF 10 S CNM 20 NW TCC LAA 50 ESE
AKO 15 E SNY 45 S DGW 15 SE RWL 25 WNW VEL 20 NE U24 55 ESE BIH 45
SE UKI 35 NW UKI 40 NE 4BK 45 E SLE 20 SE OLM 25 NE UIL ...CONT...
55 N ISN 45 ESE MOT 20 SSW JMS 55 WNW AXN 20 NNE BRD 30 ENE CMX
...CONT... 10 NW EFK 30 E ISP ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 25 S CTY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NEB/SD INTO
NORTHERN IL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE PLAINS STATES...ACROSS
THE UPPER MS VALLEY...GREAT LAKES STATES...INTO THE DELMARVA...

BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH DEEP SURFACE LOW FORMING
OVER KS/NEB.  SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM LOW ACROSS IA
INTO NORTHERN IL/IND.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OR LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD TODAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR AN ACTIVE SEVERE
WEATHER DAY.

...EASTERN SD/NEB INTO OH VALLEY...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN IA. SCATTERED INTENSE CONVECTION HAS
ALREADY BEGUN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...AND IN VICINITY OF
SURFACE WARM FRONT /REF WW231/.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY INTO WI/NORTHERN IL.  OTHER
ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN REGION OF STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHEAST SD. 
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70F WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK
CAP.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALSO QUITE STRONG IN THIS ZONE
WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KNOTS AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR
NEAR AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF FRONT.  SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY ALONG THIS CORRIDOR
THROUGH THE EVENING...ORGANIZING INTO A FAST MOVING MCS WITH AN
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO NORTHERN IND OVERNIGHT.

...LOWER MI/IND/OH/PA...
MCS ONGOING OVER LOWER MI WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A SEVERE RISK AS IT
TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS LOWER MI...AND NORTHERN OH.  POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS FOR SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS INTO VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF IND/OH.  IF THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS...SEVERE
STORMS COULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE EVENING AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF PA/WV...AND VA/MD OVERNIGHT.

...WESTERN/CENTRAL SD/NEB/KS...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE/STRONG INSTABILITY AND A
WEAKENED CAP ALONG THE DRYLINE.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT DEEP
MIXING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
STORMS FROM WESTERN KS/NEB INTO SOUTHEAST SD THIS AFTERNOON. 
STEADILY INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...PROVIDING FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS.  BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER PARTS OF SD/NEB WILL ALSO
POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.  STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING INTO EASTERN NEB/SD...WHERE THEY MAY
INTERACT WITH REMNANT BOUNDARIES FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
MAINTAIN A SEVERE RISK.

...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH NOW OVER NM/NORTHERN MEXICO WILL COMBINE FOR A RISK OF
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WEST
TX AND SOUTHEAST NM.  SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

..HART/JEWELL.. 05/21/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.