[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201244
SWODY1
SPC AC 201241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

VALID 201300Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
MSS 15 NNW SYR 20 NNW HTS 25 E SDF 10 N TBN 35 S SZL TOP 30 N RSL 40
SE LAA 30 SSE LHX 15 ESE PUB 15 N COS 20 ESE FCL 40 SE CYS 25 ENE
VTN 25 E MHE 35 NW FRM RST 30 W OSH 10 N APN.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB PIE
...CONT... 30 SW PSX 30 N HOU 50 WSW POE 50 E MLU 40 NNE GLH 65 SSW
JBR 40 SE HRO 20 NNE JLN 15 SSW EMP 55 S RSL 40 SE LBL 45 E PVW 25
SE P07 ...CONT... 25 W ELP 35 SE ONM 45 ESE ABQ 40 NNW LVS 25 ESE
ALS 50 NNE ALS 30 SE ASE 30 W ASE 20 SSE GJT 35 N CEZ 30 SE BCE 10
ENE MLF 50 SSE ELY 70 WNW P38 40 SSE BIH FAT 20 ESE UKI 30 SE EKA 35
E OTH 20 NW SLE 15 NNE UIL ...CONT... 55 NNE DVL 30 SE FAR 60 S DLH
30 N RHI 130 NE CMX ...CONT... 25 SE BOS 20 NNE AVP 20 ESE HGR 15
SSE ORF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HI PLAINS EWD
ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL CONUS THROUGH
THE DAY 1 PERIOD WITH GENERALLY A CYCLONIC...CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME
FORECAST ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES INTO NERN STATES. SEVERAL
SMALLER-SCALE DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PATTERN...THE
MOST NOTABLE OF WHICH BEING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER SRN ONTARIO/WRN
GREAT LAKES AND CNTRL/NERN NM. THE FORMER WILL RAPIDLY TRANSLATE EWD
ACROSS SERN ONTARIO/SRN QUEBEC AND NRN NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE LATTER
WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...ERN PORTION OF COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE
ONTARIO/GREAT LAKES SYSTEM WILL PUSH EWD/SEWD TODAY...LIKELY
EXTENDING FROM LAKE ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE WWD ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES
TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SERN CO BY EARLY EVENING. WRN PORTION OF
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING...PRIOR TO LIFTING NWD
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF FORECAST PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT
FALLS SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES.

...ERN GREAT LAKES WWD INTO THE MIDWEST...
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/SERN CANADA SHOULD SUSTAIN EWD-MOVING MCS /CURRENTLY
OVER CNTRL/SRN LOWER MI/. PERSISTENT SWLY LLJ SHOULD MAINTAIN FEED
OF INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
INTO SRN FLANK OF MESOSCALE SYSTEM. WHILE MAJORITY OF MCS MAY
EVENTUALLY MOVE N OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER...SRN FLANK MAY AFFECT
LAKES ONTARIO/ERIE INTO WRN NY LATER TODAY. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FOR THIS AREA SHOW VEERING AND MODESTLY STRONG WINDS THROUGH THE
DEPTH OF THE TROPOSPHERE SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING
STRUCTURES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD TEND
TO WEAKEN BY EVENING AS BOUNDARY-LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.

ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE WWD ALONG SYNOPTIC
FRONT AND/OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EMANATING FROM ONGOING MCS.
WRN EXTENT OF DIURNAL ACTIVITY WILL LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY ABILITY
OF STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP  WHICH HAS
SPREAD E OF THE MS RIVER PER 12Z ILX SOUNDING. GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THAT PART OF INSTABILITY AXIS /MLCAPES OF
1000-2000 J/KG/ DEVELOPING BENEATH SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
FLOW FROM ERN IA EWD/NEWD INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES.

...ERN CO AND NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL ONCE AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
INVOF OF FRONT WHICH WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY BY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT LARGE-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS
SUGGESTS AIRMASS MAY REMAIN CAPPED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE WHERE INTENSIFYING ELY
UPSLOPE COMPONENT AND RESULTANT ADIABATIC COOLING OVERCOMES
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. PRIMARY CONCERN ACROSS THIS AREA IS CURRENT 
ADVECTION OF DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS FROM THE N/NE.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT INCREASING ELY LOW-LEVEL WIND COMPONENT
ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAP RICHER MOISTURE TO THE E
ACROSS KS/SRN NEB. THIS MOISTURE AND STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES APPROACHING 1000-1500
J/KG. STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY 50KTS OF 0-6KM
SHEAR AND 0-3KM SRH OF 250-300 J/KG SUGGEST THE LIKLIHOOD OF
SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS AS THEY MOVE NEWD OFF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

AS LLJ STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS OVERNIGHT...
ADDITIONAL TSTMS/STORM CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NWRN
KS/SWRN NEB. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO BECOME ELEVATED WITH TIME AS THEY
MOVE/DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NEB INTO PORTIONS OF SD WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE MOST INTENSE CELLS.

..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 05/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.