[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200556
SWODY1
SPC AC 200553

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1253 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW
MSS 15 NW SYR 15 NW HTS 25 E SDF 15 WSW STL 30 ESE MKC 30 NNE RSL 55
WNW GCK 40 SSE LAA 25 SW LHX 25 S DEN 40 NE DEN 30 WSW MHN 10 N YKN
10 WSW FOD 35 SSW MTW OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE BOS 20 NNE AVP
20 ESE HGR 15 SSE ORF.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW DAB PIE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW MOT 70 ENE ABR
40 NW EAU 30 N RHI 130 NE CMX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W ELP 35 SE ONM 45
ESE ABQ 40 NNW LVS 25 ESE ALS 50 NNE ALS 30 SE ASE 30 W ASE 20 SSE
GJT 35 N CEZ 30 SE BCE 10 ENE MLF 50 SSE ELY 70 WNW P38 40 SSE BIH
FAT 20 ESE UKI 30 SE EKA 35 E OTH 20 NW SLE 15 NNE UIL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E PSX 50 NE HOU 30
NNW LCH 45 WNW JAN 20 SE MEM 25 ENE ARG 35 SSE TBN 50 SSE OJC 25 WNW
EMP 55 S RSL 40 SE LBL 45 E PVW 25 SE P07.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE HIGH/CNTRL
PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID WEST...TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL FEATURE A ZONE OF FAST CONFLUENT MID LEVEL
FLOW AND AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW
ENGLAND...AN EXPANSIVE MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...AND A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST/GREAT BASIN.
PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE COLD FRONT
EMANATING FROM GREAT LAKES IMPULSE WHICH WILL TRAIL WSWWD INTO THE
CNTRL AND HIGH PLAINS. THE ERN SEGMENT OF THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES...NEW ENGLAND...AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY
FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MIDSECTION OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE...FROM LOWER MI WEST TO THE NEB/KS BORDER...WILL STALL
BENEATH SRN EDGE OF MODEST WLY MID LEVEL WINDS DURING THE DAY BEFORE
RETURNING NWD AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE MO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THE
WRN EXTENSION OF THE FRONT WILL BACK INTO ERN CO...PROBABLY
INTERSECT LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER SERN CO.

...MIDWEST/ERN GREAT LAKES...
MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER MI EARLY
TODAY WITHIN LOW LEVEL WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AND BENEATH RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET CORE. AS CONVEYOR BELT SHIFTS EWD AHEAD
OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT...ASCENT AND WEAK 
DESTABILIZATION SHOULD MAINTAIN A BAND OF TSTMS FROM WRN/UPSTATE NY
SWWD ACROSS NWRN PA AND INTO OH. THE STORMS ACROSS NY WILL MOVE INTO
ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND MODEST WLY MID
LEVEL FLOW...A FEW STORMS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY DAMAGING WINDS.

STRONGER INSTABILITY DUE IN PART TO GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL EXIST IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS FROM LOWER MI ACROSS NRN IND AND
OH. DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD RE-INITIATE ACROSS THESE AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...PROBABLY ALONG THE MCS OUTFLOW OVER NRN IND/OH
AREAS...AND ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MI.
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST NEAR THE FRONT AND
WEAKER WITH SWD EXTENT. A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH
SUPERCELL/ORGANIZED MULTICELL ACTIVITY ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE ETA...AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS...HAVE
DEVELOPED A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTIVE QPF ACROSS IA/NRN MO EARLY IN
THE PERIOD AND THEN QUICKLY WEAKEN THIS FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
STORM INITIATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA GIVEN
FAVORABLE FORCING AND VERY HIGH INSTABILITY FOCUSED ALONG THE EDGE
OF THE CAP ACROSS THIS REGION. ANY STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE
DAY WILL POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY IS PROBABLY NOT
LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS MO/ERN KS WITH STRONG
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THESE AREA.

...ERN CO/CNTRL PLAINS...
MOIST POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING
TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FROM SERN CO/SWRN AND CNTRL KS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE
FRONT. IN ADDITION...VERY HIGH VALUES OF STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ARE
FCST COINCIDENT WITH THIS INSTABILITY ON AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE FROM ERN CO ENEWD TO THE KS/NEB BORDER. TSTMS ARE APT TO
INITIATE OVER ERN CO AND SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. IN
ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL...A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
FOR CELLS INVOF LEE LOW/FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION...AS WELL AS
STORMS TRACKING ALONG/NEAR AND ACROSS THE FRONT FROM ERN CO ACROSS
NWRN KS/SWRN NEB. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO
MDT RISK AS SCENARIO BECOMES CLEARER AFTER DAYBREAK.

FARTHER EAST...CAP WILL LIKELY INHIBIT MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNTRL KS. HOWEVER...A FEW HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS
WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL MAY ALSO DEVELOP OVER THESE
AREAS IF HEATING CAN LOCALLY OVERCOME INHIBITION.

ERN CO/WRN KS ACTIVITY IS FCST TO CONGEAL INTO MCS AND SPREAD NEWD
OVERNIGHT AS LLJ INTENSIFIES AND MID LEVEL IMPULSE EJECTS NEWD FROM
MEAN WRN TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED WITH TIME BUT A WIND AND HAIL HAZARD COULD DEVELOP INTO
NERN NEB/SERN SD THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WIDELY SCATTERED HIGH-BASED TSTMS ARE LIKELY ALONG DRYLINE DURING
PERIOD OF MAXIMUM DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MARGINAL SHEAR IN THE
UPDRAFT LAYER SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND
OUTFLOW DOMINANT. HOWEVER...A COUPLE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL
REPORTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 05/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.