[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 201629
SWODY1
SPC AC 201625

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW
PBG 20 SSE SYR DUJ 20 WSW HLG 40 SSE MIE 35 S UIN TOP 25 SE BIE 35
ENE OMA 30 NNE ALO 15 SW GRB 25 ESE APN.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW
CAO 40 SSW PUB 10 S LAR 40 NE LAR 35 WNW BFF 20 NW SNY 40 NW GLD 35
SSE EHA 30 SW CAO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CRP 60 N VCT 40
N POE 50 NNW MEI 20 W MSL 25 NE MKL 10 NNW DYR JBR 35 SSE HRO 20 NNE
BVO 20 N BVO 10 SSE P28 15 NW GAG 25 SE P07 ...CONT... 20 SSE ELP 45
SSW LVS 20 SE SAF 35 NNE SAF 45 NNE ALS 30 SE ASE 40 W ASE 35 W 4HV
55 SE ELY 30 SE BIH 50 ENE MER 30 NE UKI 25 SE EKA 20 W PDX 15 ENE
CLM ...CONT... 55 NNE MOT ABR 10 ENE MKT 40 E MQT ...CONT... 30 SE
BOS 25 NE POU 35 WSW ABE 35 SSE MRB 35 NNW RIC 25 SE ORF ...CONT...
15 NE JAX 15 SSW GNV 15 NE SRQ 15 SSW FMY.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE ERN GREAT LAKES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...ERN PORTION CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SRN GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY...
ERN PART OF SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS KS INTO
NERN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI WILL SHIFT SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WHILE PLAINS PORTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SRN IA
INTO NERN KS.  BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS VERY MOIST BUT STRONGLY CAPPED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  HOWEVER...CAP WILL BE WEAKER FROM ERN IA
INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES.  IN ADDITION...A WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST
TO RIDE ATOP LARGE SCALE RIDGE AND MOVE EWD INTO IA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXPECTED ACROSS WARM
SECTOR...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FROM ERN IA/FAR SERN WI INTO NRN IL/IND. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR REMAINS RESPECTABLE... ESPECIALLY GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY FORECAST...SUGGESTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
NUMEROUS LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE AS STORMS SHIFT ESEWD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS EVENING.  SUPERCELLS AND ORGANIZED LINES/BOW ECHOES ARE
POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS LOWER MI IS MORE PROBLEMATIC TODAY...
DUE TO EARLY MCS PASSAGE.  HOWEVER...MOIST AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE AND
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF
SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT AND NEAR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
STORMS.  THUS...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY WITH ATTENDANT
THREAT OF ORGANIZED LINES/SUPERCELLS.  

DESPITE STRONG CAP OVER THE ERN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
STRONG HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INTO FAR NWRN MO/NERN KS INTO SRN
IA LATER TODAY.  GIVEN THE CAPPING...SEVERE THREAT INTO THE MO
VALLEY REGION OF SLIGHT RISK IS MORE CONDITIONAL THAN POINTS FARTHER
EAST.

ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL WAA
INCREASES OVER STABLE POST-FRONTAL SURFACE LAYER INTO IA/NRN IL/SRN
WI WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER INTO NEB/SD.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WOULD
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

...ERN GREAT LAKES...
MORNING MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION PERSISTING WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. REGION WILL
REMAIN WITHIN MODEST WLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW...SUGGESTING SHEAR
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF LINES/SUPERCELLS AS STORMS DEVELOP LATER
TODAY. SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS STORMS SHIFT EAST DURING THE
EVENING.

...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THIS REGION TODAY...WITH SUFFICIENT CLEARING EVIDENT IN VISIBLE
IMAGERY FOR MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
BY 21Z.  PRESSURE RISES WERE OBSERVED OVER ERN CO PLAINS THIS
MORNING IN WAKE OF SURFACE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER TO A EAST AND THEN SELY DIRECTION AT THE SURFACE
AND ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. 
IN ADDITION...WEAK IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO EJECT NEWD AWAY FROM WRN
U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND AID INITIATION BY THE EARLY EVENING.  ONCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPS...STEERING FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST
STRONGER STORMS WILL TAKE ON SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS THEY SHIFT NEWD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. 

FARTHER SOUTH...DEEP MIXING WITHIN HOT BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO
OVERCOME CAPPING ALONG LEE TROUGH INTO ERN NM AND THE NWRN TX
PANHANDLE.  THIS WILL SPREAD A THREAT OF HIGH BASED CONVECTION EWD
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.