[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 200113
SWODY1
SPC AC 200110

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0810 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW
ANJ 25 ENE MSN 25 SSE MMO 15 W BMI 40 W MLI 45 WSW ALO 35 ENE SUX 35
SSW 9V9 70 N GFK.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W ELP 45 W TCC 35
SE LHX FCL 35 WSW RWL 40 ESE EVW 20 N EKO 60 NNW SAC 40 WNW UKI
...CONT... 20 N ACV 45 NNE 4BK 40 WNW RDM 45 WNW YKM 65 NW 4OM
...CONT... 15 S APN 20 E BEH 30 NE MIE 25 NE ZZV MRB 30 NE SBY
...CONT... 15 ENE JAX 25 S CTY ...CONT... 10 SSE GPT 35 SE ESF 40
SSW GWO 25 SW CBM 40 SW HSV 30 NNW HSV 35 N HOP ALN 25 SSW DSM 20 W
OLU 35 ESE MHN 45 NW VTN 35 ENE PHP 35 N MBG 40 W BIS 20 WNW DIK 25
SE MLS 60 N SHR 45 ENE COD 30 NW WRL 25 SSW WRL 50 E RIW 35 NW DGW
60 NE DGW 15 W CDR 45 WSW MHN 25 W HLC 40 NNW GAG 45 WSW MRF.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS TO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES...

...ERN DAKOTAS TO THE WRN/UPPER GREAT LAKES...
STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WERE
TRACKING QUICKLY ENEWD ACROSS ERN ND THIS EVENING AND WILL CROSS NRN
MN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING INTO ONTARIO BY THURSDAY MORNING. A
CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS...SOME TORNADIC...HAVE ACCOMPANIED THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS NCNTRL AND NERN ND THIS EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...SEVERAL
SUPERCELLS HAVE INCREASED ALONG PREFRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS ERN
SD IN AN AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND INTENSE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS
EVIDENCED BY ABR 00Z RAOB. WHILE THERE MAY BE A NARROW N-S CORRIDOR
ACROSS EXTREME WRN MN WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL
SHEAR ALONG THE WARM FRONT REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN TORNADO
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASING SURFACE-BASED STABILITY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
WARM FRONT. OVERALL CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A 
ELEVATED HAIL/ISOLD WIND THREAT AS WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS AND
LINES OF STORMS...SUSTAINED BY FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC FORCING...SPREAD
EWD ACROSS MN AND INTO WRN WI AND THE WRN U.P. OF MI THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...INTENSE...LONG-LIVED...AND
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SUPERCELL CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD ALONG NRN EDGE OF 
INSTABILITY AXIS AND CAP ACROSS NRN IA. RECENT RADAR IMAGES SUGGEST
SOME BACKBUILDING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS CONVECTION COINCIDENT WITH
INCREASING LLJ SHOWING UP ON SLATER IA WIND PROFILER. THERE IS SOME
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS ACTIVITY COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF THIS OCCURS LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS CNTRL IA WOULD SUPPORT SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL INITIALLY.
HOWEVER...MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...AND ONE SUPPORTED BY MOST RECENT
ETA/RUC/GFS GUIDANCE...IS THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINTAINED ON THE
NOSE OF STRONG LLJ AND DEVELOP ESEWD AS AN MCS FROM NERN IA INTO
SWRN WI/NRN IL OVERNIGHT. A HAIL AND WIND THREAT WILL BE LIKELY
GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY FEEDING INTO THE SYSTEM AND STRENGTH OF
ENVIRONMENT SHEAR.

..CARBIN.. 05/20/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.