[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 192010
SWODY1
SPC AC 192007

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

VALID 192000Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NNW
ANJ 15 ENE LNR 15 SW DBQ 20 WSW BRL LWD 35 NNE FNB 20 SSE OLU 15 NE
ANW 35 NNW VTN 15 ENE PIR 60 NE MOT.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE
HSE 20 NNE BWG 30 S BMG 10 W CRW 25 E SBY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MLB 20 NW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 15 NNE ESF
35 SW GWO 15 E MEM 35 ESE JBR ARG 15 W UMN 40 SSW EMP 15 W HUT 35
WNW GAG 50 SE LBB 30 SSE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 ESE OSC 15 N PKB
15 SSE HGR 30 S ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 45 SE GNT 20
E RTN 35 SSE LIC 35 WSW AKO 10 WNW FCL 15 NNE SLC 60 NW ELY 45 SSE
NFL 30 WSW TVL 35 ESE UKI 35 ENE ACV 35 N MFR 35 N SEA 20 NE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS EWD TO THE UPPER MS VLY/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS
AND THE SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...

...NRN PLAINS TO THE GTLKS REGION...
FIRST ORDER OF BUSINESS CONCERNS AREAS FROM CNTRL ND EWD INTO NWRN
MN.  MODEST POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD. 
TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY FORMED ALONG THE NCNTRL ND/CANADA BORDER ALONG
STRONGEST DCVA/SURFACE TROUGH. THESE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH INTO CNTRL/ERN ND AND ERN/SRN SD THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. AIR MASS IS TRYING TO DESTABILIZE RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AS PRECEDING CLOUDS ERODE.  MLCAPES WILL LIKELY RISE TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG AS 60S DEW POINTS SURGE NWD BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT.  A TORNADO OR TWO
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY IS APT TO MOVE RAPIDLY EWD TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  EWD EXTENT OF
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...GIVEN THAT INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL BE NARROW.

...CNTRL PLAINS/LOWER MO VLY EWD TO UPPER MS VLY...
18 UTC SOUNDING FROM KLBF SHOWS THE MAGNITUDE OF WARMING NOSING NWD
IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND EVEN KOMA BALLOON INDICATED 1-2 DEGREES
C WARMING OVER 12Z.  THIS WILL LIKELY CAP SURFACE BASED PARCELS
ACROSS MOST OF NEB SWD THROUGH KS.

CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO ERODE RAPIDLY ALONG THE MO RVR AND ELEVATED
TSTMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NWRN IA...INDICATIVE OF VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES.  THERMAL RIDGE IS NOSING NWD THROUGH THE MO VLY AND
LINES OF CU ARE FORMING JUST NORTH OF THE NEB BORDER AND ALSO WEST
OF HURON.  CONTINUED HEATING...SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGEST HEIGHT
FALLS AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS SURGING INTO THE MID 60S SHOULD
ALLOW TSTMS TO FORM ALONG NRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAP FROM SRN
SD/EXTREME NERN NEB INTO NWRN IA AND SWRN MN THIS AFTERNOON.  THOUGH
CURRENT ACTIVITY APPEARS ELEVATED...MORE SURFACE BASED TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS SCNTRL SD/NERN NEB IN A FEW HOURS.  THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD THEN MOVE ESEWD INTO SERN SD/SWRN MN/NWRN IA LATER THIS
EVENING.

PRIND THAT INITIAL TSTMS MAY BE DISCRETE AND GIVEN 40-50 KTS OF
VERTICAL SHEAR...SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO.  ACTIVITY SHOULD CONGEAL INTO A MCS
LATER TONIGHT AND MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY TEND TO BACKBUILD INTO
PARTS OF NWRN IA/SERN SD OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THE LARGE HAIL/WIND
THREAT WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/SRN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...
TSTM CLUSTERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
SITUATED E-W OVER CNTRL/SRN VA NWWD INTO KY.  THESE STORMS ARE
EMBEDDED ALONG SRN PORTION OF THE STRONGER WLYS.  IF TSTMS CAN
ORIENT BOUNDARIES ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN FLOW...DAMAGING
WINDS MAY OCCUR.  ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
HIGH BASED TSTMS INITIATED ALONG THE SERN NM MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE AIR MASS HEATED CONSIDERABLY.  THESE TSTMS MAY
MIGRATE ENEWD ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AND
DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..RACY.. 05/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.