[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191640
SWODY1
SPC AC 191637

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E
ECG 35 SE BWG 30 NNW SGF 10 ESE HSI 30 SE SNY 20 WNW AIA 35 N PIR 45
N MOT ...CONT... 65 WNW ANJ 40 SSE ESC 30 SSW MSN 40 SW RFD 25 SSW
MMO 10 WNW LAF 25 NNW DAY 30 SSE HLG 20 SE ACY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MLB 20 NW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 15 NNE ESF
35 SW GWO 15 E MEM 35 ESE JBR ARG 15 W UMN 40 SSW EMP 15 W HUT 35
WNW GAG 50 SE LBB 30 SSE P07.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE ERI 10 SSE ELM
10 W MSV 25 SSW GON.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S DMN 45 SE GNT 20
E RTN 35 SSE LIC 35 WSW AKO 10 WNW FCL 15 NNE SLC 60 NW ELY 45 SSE
NFL 30 WSW TVL 35 ESE UKI 35 ENE ACV 35 N MFR 35 N SEA 20 NE BLI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY TO VA...

...CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY...
STRONG IMPULSE NOW EJECTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ENEWD
AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH THROUGH THE EVENING.  ASSOCIATED MID
LEVEL JET WILL OVERSPREAD THE NRN PLAINS AND SUPPORT STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FROM THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY NWD.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS
SYSTEM...A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS NRN ND TODAY WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING SWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  LARGE
AREA OF DENSE OVERCAST/FOG WILL HINDER DESTABILIZATION INTO THE ERN
NEB/ERN DAKOTAS.  HOWEVER AS HEATING CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THIS LOW CLOUD DECK MAY BREAK UP AND SUPPORT
AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON.  UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN TOO GREAT THIS LATE IN THE
FORECAST PROCESS TO JUSTIFY A MODERATE RISK /ESPECIALLY WITH THE
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD DECK/.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
FORECASTS WILL BE CONTINUED IN THE PROBABILITIES.

THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE PLACED UNDER RISING HEIGHTS/ TEMPERATURES
ALOFT. THEREFORE IT APPEARS HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT INTO ERN ND AND ERN SD/NERN NEB AROUND 21Z...PENDING ON
DESTABILIZATION AS EXPECTED.  THIS REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER
FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND PARAMETERS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES FROM AROUND 20Z-02Z.  AFTER WHICH...ACTIVITY
WILL RIDE EAST OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
ELEVATED ALONG LLJ AXIS INTO THE NRN MS RIVER VALLEY AND WRN GREAT
LAKES. LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
OVERNIGHT.  TAIL END OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A BOW ECHO
SYSTEM AND TRACK ESEWD ALONG INSTABILITY/CAP GRADIENT ACROSS IA
THROUGH THE EVENING.

OTHER ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP VERY RAPIDLY WITHIN
EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD CAP BREAK ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO
NERN KS/NWRN MO/SERN NEB/SWRN IA.  LOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.  HOWEVER...EXTENT OF LOW
CLOUDS AND STRENGTH OF CAP SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO IS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL.

...HIGH PLAINS...
DEEP MIXING WITHIN HOT BOUNDARY LAYER MAY ALLOW CAP TO ERODE AND
SUPPORT A FEW AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WRN NEB INTO WRN TX. 
SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE HIGHER INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...DUE TO THE STRONGER SHEAR.

...VA INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY...
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE VA COAST WWD INTO THE OH RIVER
VALLEY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL THEN
LIFT NWD TOWARDS THE SRN GREAT LAKES LATER IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF
STRONG SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF THE NRN PLAINS.  WEAK IMPULSE EVIDENT
ON WV IMAGERY IS FORECAST BY THE RUC/ETA TO SHIFT ACROSS VA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY AS
AIR MASS BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS.  FARTHER
WEST ALONG THE FRONT...A BROAD RESERVOIR OF MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.  GIVEN THE WEAK CAP
AND CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL /20-30 KT FROM 0-6 KM/...YET WILL STILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL LINES/CLUSTERS.

..EVANS/CROSBIE.. 05/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.