[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 191243
SWODY1
SPC AC 191240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0740 AM CDT WED MAY 19 2004

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE
FNB 35 WSW LNK 20 N GRI 65 W YKN 10 NE HON 40 NE ATY 35 NE RWF 30 SE
MKT 25 W ALO 35 W OTM 35 NE FNB.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW
ANJ 10 SSE GRR 20 ENE FWA 10 NNE CMH 30 S HLG 20 SE ACY ...CONT...
25 E ECG 30 ENE TRI 25 SSW CGI 20 N SGF 45 SSW EAR 45 NW BBW 15 SSW
BIS 60 NNE MOT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE BPT 15 NNE ESF
35 SW GWO 15 E MEM 35 ESE JBR ARG 15 W UMN 40 SSW EMP 15 W HUT 35
WNW GAG 50 SE LBB 30 SSE P07 ...CONT... 40 S DMN 45 SE GNT 20 E RTN
35 SSE LIC 35 WSW AKO 10 WNW FCL 15 NNE SLC 60 NW ELY 45 SSE NFL 30
WSW TVL 35 ESE UKI 35 ENE ACV 35 N MFR 35 N SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT...
10 NNE ERI 10 SSE ELM 10 W MSV 25 SSW GON ...CONT... 25 NNW MLB 20
NW FMY.

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SERN SD/SWRN MN/ERN NEB AND
WRN/CNTRL IA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL
PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY INTO THE DELMARVA
REGION...

--POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY--

...SYNOPSIS...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-70KT MID-LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE EWD INTO THE
WRN GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE WLY
FLOW /I.E. 40-50KTS AT 500MB/ ACROSS NEB AND IA...PARTICULARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE OVER
WRN OH WILL PROGRESS EWD...REACHING THE DELMARVA REGION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY LOW ATTENDANT TO NRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS ND
TODAY...PRIOR TO WEAKENING OVER SWRN ONTARIO LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...LIKELY
EXTENDING FROM LOW SWWD THROUGH ERN SD INTO N-CNTRL NEB BY 20/00Z.
MEANWHILE...WARM FRONT OVER KS HAS ALREADY STARTED A NWD RETREAT
THIS MORNING AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM INTERSECTION WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER
S-CNTRL/SERN SD SEWD ACROSS NERN NEB INTO CNTRL OR SRN IA BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. NWD RETURN OF THAT PORTION OF FRONT OVER
MO MAY BE SLOWED BY ONGOING MCS OVER CNTRL MO...MAKING FUTURE
LOCATION ACROSS IA MORE UNCERTAIN. FARTHER E...QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY FROM THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WILL SAG SWD
TODAY INTO THE DELMARVA REGION WITH WWD PORTION NEAR THE OH RIVER BY
AFTERNOON.

...NRN PLAINS/WRN GREAT LAKES SWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY...
WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIPITATION BAND EVOLVING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN
DAKOTAS SHOULD BE MAINTAINED EWD TODAY INTO MN ALONG AXIS OF
PERSISTENT 30-40KT SSWLY LLJ. THOUGH STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
REGIME SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN ELEVATED...DECREASING STABILITY WITH
TIME AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE
HAIL/ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WITH STRONGEST STORMS.

ADDITIONAL...POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SWD ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN...AS WELL AS SEWD
ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER ERN NEB/WRN/CNTRL IA. THOUGH
MORNING 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS RAPID NWWD ADVECTION OF
STRATUS BENEATH SOME MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY. EXPECT
MLCAPES TO APPROACH 1000-2500 J/KG AHEAD OF FRONT OVER THE ERN
DAKOTAS...WITH VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS
ERN NEB WITH MLCAPES REACHING 3500-4000 J/KG.

SURFACE-BASED TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE FIRST AHEAD OF FRONT BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS WHERE STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
FORCING WILL BE COLOCATED WITH WEAKER CAP. SUBSEQUENT SEWD
DEVELOPMENT ALONG WARM FRONT INTO PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER CAP WILL
BECOME MORE LIKELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND /MORE SO/ EVENING
HOURS. JUXTAPOSITION OF 45-55KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ACROSS INSTABILITY
AXIS SUGGESTS THE LIKLIHOOD OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS
THAT HAVE LONG RESIDENCE TIME ALONG JUST N OF WARM FRONT OVER SERN
SD/ERN NEB/WRN IA WHERE LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY/STREAMWISE VORTICITY WILL
BE MAXIMIZED.

UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH
A DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT EXTENDING EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT
LAKES.

...DELMARVA REGION WWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN
ONGOING CLUSTER OF TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN KY/WV EWD INTO THE
DELMARVA REGION LATER TODAY. STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
/MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ TO S OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH STORM CLUSTERS. THOUGH ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 20-30KTS
AT 500MB WILL EXIST ACROSS REGION...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS ALONG SRN EDGE OF
CLOUD SHIELD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING
WINDS.

FARTHER W...REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSTMS IN PROGRESS OVER MO
INTO SRN IL MAY PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NWRN/CNTRL MO INDICATE A FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF DEEP SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

..MEAD/TAYLOR.. 05/19/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.