[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 182005
SWODY1
SPC AC 182002

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0302 PM CDT TUE MAY 18 2004

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL 30
SSW EKN 20 ENE SDF 15 E CGI UNO 20 NNW HRO 20 ENE BVO 35 ESE P28 30
NW P28 25 E RSL 40 SW FNB 15 ENE STJ 30 NE IRK 45 SSE CGX 20 ESE
DTW.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE
WRL 30 ESE IDA 45 S 27U 60 S MSO 40 E LWT 35 E SDY 55 NNE BIS 30 SSE
JMS 30 WNW HON 40 S 9V9 35 NNW LBF 45 SSW IML 40 E LIC 30 NNE COS 35
SSE SHR 25 NE WRL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW MFE 40 NW ALI
35 SE AUS 50 N CLL PRX 25 ESE MLC 30 SW TUL 25 SSW END 40 ENE GAG
GAG 25 ESE CDS 20 ESE P07 30 WSW P07 30 NW FST 30 NE PVW 30 N LHX 10
SW 4FC 40 N GJT 20 NNE CNY 60 SW PUC 30 W U24 50 S ENV 15 SSW EKO 30
WSW BAM 50 NW TVL 15 E UKI EKA ...CONT... 30 W RRT 50 SW BJI 25 E
OTG 10 S ALO 15 NE DBQ 30 NNE MKE 15 S OSC ...CONT... 25 N MLB 25
WNW FMY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE HUL 25 SSW CON
ISP.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS NEWD
THROUGH THE MIDWEST/OH VLY AND INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AND THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

...WRN NEW ENGLAND/NY SWD TO MID ATLANTIC AREA...
SRN PERIPHERY OF H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE TOWARD THE
NERN STATES WITH ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW.  ASSOCIATED
LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT HAVE PROVEN FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS OVER WRN/NRN NY
STATE. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
750-1000 J/KG AND TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT INTO WRN NEW
ENGLAND. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
CELLS...THOUGH MEAGER LAPSE RATES MAY BE A NEGATIVE FACTOR IN
SUSTENANCE OF A SUPERCELL THREAT.  OTHERWISE...IF TSTM CLUSTERS CAN
BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME...SMALL SCALE
BOWS/LEWPS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE.  FLOW IS BACKED IN THE
HUDSON RVR VLY...AND IF A SUSTAINED TSTM CAN DEVELOP...THE GREATEST
BRIEF TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE HUDSON RVR VLY.  ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE EVENING OVER WRN
NEW ENGLAND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE REGION.

FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE MASON DIXON LINE...CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK
W-E ORIENTED BOUNDARIES AND ALMOST NON-EXISTENT CAP ARE SUPPORTING
TSTM CLUSTERS. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAKER HERE THAN FARTHER NORTH
WITH STERLING/CHARLESTON WV VWP SHOWING MIDLEVEL FLOW AOB 20 KTS. 
THIS COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER H5 TEMPERATURES OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS WILL LIKELY ARGUE FOR MORE PULSE-TYPE SEVERE TSTMS
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AREA.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT REGION IS
ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF WLYS...PERSISTENT MOIST INFLOW AND WEAK
CAP...DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL COULD OCCUR WITH ANY TSTM THROUGH THE
EVENING.  ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS MAIN UPPER
SUPPORT PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.

...MIDWEST/OH VLY...
LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE
MID MS VLY THIS AFTERNOON.  LEADING EDGE OF LAST NIGHTS MCS HAS
REGENERATED OWING TO HEATING AND REGIONAL CONVERGENCE BENEATH LARGE
SCALE ASCENT ALOFT.  DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE
LINE SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP INTO BOWS AND LEWPS AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE A THREAT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS IL/IND AND PARTS OF KY/OH LATER
TONIGHT.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE STRONG ENOUGH /30-35 KTS/ TO
SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

...CNTRL PLAINS/OZARKS...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EMANATED FROM OVERNIGHT KS MCS HAS STALLED
ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER AND COULD RETREAT TOWARD THE SYNOPTIC COLD
FRONT IN CNTRL KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS
THAT STRONGEST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE FARTHER TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS AND DEEPER LAYER CONVERGENCE IS WEAK ALONG
THE BOUNDARY.  FURTHERMORE...A SUBSTANTIAL CAP REMAINS AND UNLESS
THERMAL RIDGE CAN BEGIN DEVELOPING NEWD...CINH MAY REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT TSTM INITIATION.  THUS... PARAMETERS ARE NOT
CONVINCING ENOUGH TO BUY INTO 18Z RUC2 SOLUTION OF INITIATION ACROSS
SCNTRL KS.  NONETHELESS...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REMOVE
SLIGHT RISK SINCE GIVEN A STORM... KINEMATICS/THERMODYNAMICS WOULD
PROVE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD THEN MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO PARTS OF THE OZARKS
OVERNIGHT...AGAIN IF TSTMS CAN MANAGE TO DEVELOP.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...
STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD FROM THE ID AREA TOWARD
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON...TSTMS HAVE
DEVELOPED BENEATH COLD POCKET ALOFT ACROSS PARTS OF ID.  THESE TSTMS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF BRIEF ORGANIZATION GIVEN STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT.  AS THE STORMS MOVE NWD INTO CNTRL/ERN ID...HAIL AND
PERHAPS DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS.

OTHERWISE...AS THE WAVE MOVES NEWD...LLJ WILL LIKELY ADVECT HIGHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NWWD ONTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN DESTABILIZATION AND COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ONE
OR MORE MCS/S. THESE WILL MOVE OUT ONTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS WITH
THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.  REF SWOMCD 743 FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER SWRN TX TERRAIN AND PERHAPS
ALONG THE DRYLINE INTO NWRN TX THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THESE WILL BE
HIGH BASED AND NOT PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED GIVEN WEAK TROPOSPHERIC
FLOW.  HOWEVER...STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO NEAR SEVERE
WINDS. A TSTM THREAT HAS BEEN ADDED...ALONG WITH LOW PROBABILISTIC
SEVERE.

..RACY.. 05/18/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.